We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

ConocoPhillips Valuation

Is COP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for COP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

COP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.8x
PEG Ratio-0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does COP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for COP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.2x
EOG EOG Resources
11.2x-4.9%US$83.8b
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources
8.5x-14.5%US$60.4b
DVN Devon Energy
7.1x-14.1%US$44.7b
FANG Diamondback Energy
6x-11.0%US$32.0b
COP ConocoPhillips
8.8x-20.2%US$158.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: COP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the peer average (8.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does COP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-12.7%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: COP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (7.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is COP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

COP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.8x
Fair PE Ratio8.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: COP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of COP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: COP ($126.81) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($72.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COP is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst COP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$126.81
US$137.88
+8.7%
13.4%US$167.00US$96.00n/a26
Nov ’23US$127.78
US$129.63
+1.4%
12.4%US$167.00US$87.00n/a28
Oct ’23US$102.34
US$124.06
+21.2%
9.9%US$153.00US$96.00n/a26
Sep ’23US$107.53
US$122.06
+13.5%
9.5%US$153.00US$96.00n/a26
Aug ’23US$95.10
US$122.19
+28.5%
9.6%US$148.00US$96.00n/a26
Jul ’23US$90.98
US$128.00
+40.7%
10.8%US$160.00US$96.00n/a25
Jun ’23US$115.75
US$126.20
+9.0%
11.3%US$160.00US$96.00n/a25
May ’23US$95.52
US$122.80
+28.6%
13.3%US$160.00US$80.00n/a26
Apr ’23US$100.58
US$114.19
+13.5%
12.4%US$150.00US$80.00n/a26
Mar ’23US$96.96
US$103.25
+6.5%
9.9%US$120.00US$77.00n/a28
Feb ’23US$91.54
US$95.62
+4.5%
9.3%US$117.00US$77.00n/a28
Jan ’23US$72.18
US$91.01
+26.1%
10.4%US$117.00US$69.00n/a28
Dec ’22US$69.20
US$90.27
+30.5%
10.3%US$117.00US$69.00n/a27
Nov ’22US$74.59
US$85.61
+14.8%
10.9%US$100.00US$64.00US$127.7828
Oct ’22US$70.10
US$77.37
+10.4%
8.5%US$90.00US$64.00US$102.3427
Sep ’22US$54.65
US$75.07
+37.4%
8.5%US$88.00US$63.00US$107.5327
Aug ’22US$56.06
US$74.93
+33.7%
8.4%US$88.00US$63.00US$95.1027
Jul ’22US$62.88
US$72.81
+15.8%
9.0%US$88.00US$63.00US$90.9827
Jun ’22US$58.27
US$67.70
+16.2%
7.7%US$85.00US$62.00US$115.7527
May ’22US$51.14
US$65.59
+28.2%
8.4%US$80.00US$55.00US$95.5227
Apr ’22US$54.02
US$63.00
+16.6%
12.4%US$80.00US$49.00US$100.5826
Mar ’22US$52.61
US$56.23
+6.9%
7.6%US$65.00US$47.00US$96.9626
Feb ’22US$40.71
US$54.43
+33.7%
8.3%US$62.00US$44.00US$91.5423
Jan ’22US$39.99
US$49.57
+23.9%
12.2%US$62.00US$36.00US$72.1823
Dec ’21US$39.27
US$46.91
+19.5%
13.1%US$62.00US$36.00US$69.2023
Nov ’21US$28.62
US$47.26
+65.1%
14.5%US$64.00US$36.00US$74.5923

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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