ConocoPhillips

NYSE:COP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$129.6b

ConocoPhillips Valuation

Is COP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of COP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$151.33
Fair Value
34.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
29
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: COP ($99.94) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($151.33)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for COP?

Key metric: As COP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for COP. This is calculated by dividing COP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is COP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14x
EarningsUS$9.25b
Market CapUS$129.63b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does COP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for COP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.2x
EOG EOG Resources
9.9x-4.3%US$71.5b
FANG Diamondback Energy
14.6x6.6%US$48.1b
HES Hess
15.7x16.5%US$43.8b
TPL Texas Pacific Land
68.5xn/aUS$32.0b
COP ConocoPhillips
14x1.7%US$129.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: COP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (27.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does COP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
USDP USD Partners
1.2xn/aUS$683.76k
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
COP 14.0xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies20PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: COP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is COP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

COP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14x
Fair PE Ratio15.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: COP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst COP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$99.94
US$131.97
+32.0%
9.4%US$165.00US$114.00n/a29
Jan ’26US$99.17
US$132.86
+34.0%
9.7%US$165.00US$114.00n/a28
Dec ’25US$108.34
US$132.39
+22.2%
8.5%US$151.00US$114.00n/a26
Nov ’25US$107.84
US$132.08
+22.5%
8.7%US$151.00US$113.12n/a26
Oct ’25US$109.37
US$134.50
+23.0%
9.1%US$161.00US$113.12n/a26
Sep ’25US$113.79
US$139.24
+22.4%
8.6%US$161.00US$114.00n/a26
Aug ’25US$108.39
US$139.93
+29.1%
8.9%US$161.00US$112.00n/a26
Jul ’25US$114.36
US$142.44
+24.6%
9.2%US$166.00US$112.00n/a25
Jun ’25US$116.48
US$142.08
+22.0%
8.9%US$166.00US$112.00n/a25
May ’25US$124.34
US$141.91
+14.1%
8.7%US$166.00US$112.00n/a28
Apr ’25US$128.68
US$135.39
+5.2%
9.6%US$173.00US$101.00n/a27
Mar ’25US$114.24
US$134.63
+17.8%
9.8%US$173.00US$101.00n/a28
Feb ’25US$111.38
US$134.77
+21.0%
10.0%US$173.00US$101.00US$98.8328
Jan ’25US$116.07
US$136.27
+17.4%
9.2%US$164.00US$101.00US$99.1728
Dec ’24US$115.23
US$138.34
+20.1%
9.3%US$164.00US$98.00US$108.3428
Nov ’24US$116.67
US$136.23
+16.8%
10.7%US$164.00US$98.00US$107.8426
Oct ’24US$119.80
US$131.77
+10.0%
10.6%US$160.00US$98.00US$109.3726
Sep ’24US$122.14
US$130.38
+6.7%
10.0%US$153.00US$98.00US$113.7926
Aug ’24US$117.38
US$127.36
+8.5%
10.9%US$153.00US$94.00US$108.3925
Jul ’24US$103.61
US$129.12
+24.6%
12.4%US$165.00US$94.00US$114.3624
Jun ’24US$99.53
US$129.60
+30.2%
13.1%US$165.00US$94.00US$116.4825
May ’24US$102.53
US$129.62
+26.4%
13.0%US$167.00US$92.00US$124.3426
Apr ’24US$99.21
US$131.20
+32.2%
12.5%US$153.00US$87.00US$128.6825
Mar ’24US$106.25
US$133.68
+25.8%
12.4%US$160.00US$92.00US$114.2426
Feb ’24US$117.70
US$136.96
+16.4%
11.7%US$160.00US$96.00US$111.3826
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 29 Analysts
US$131.97
Fair Value
24.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
29
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/06 22:49
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/06 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

ConocoPhillips is covered by 63 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William SeleskyArgus Research Company
Finbarr MacCarthyAtlantic Equities LLP
Joseph AllmanBaird