ConocoPhillips Valuation

Is COP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • PM vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of COP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: COP ($111.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($113.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COP is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for COP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

COP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA5.8x
PEG Ratio-16.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does COP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for COP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.7x
EOG EOG Resources
8.5x-3.4%US$64.9b
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources
11.1x-0.07%US$54.3b
HES Hess
33x17.0%US$45.6b
FANG Diamondback Energy
10x12.3%US$31.5b
COP ConocoPhillips
12x-0.7%US$131.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: COP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (15.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does COP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-0.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-0.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: COP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (8.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is COP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

COP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12x
Fair PE Ratio10.9x

PM vs Fair Ratio: COP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst COP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$111.51
US$134.95
+21.0%
9.7%US$173.00US$101.00n/a28
Feb ’25US$111.38
US$134.77
+21.0%
10.0%US$173.00US$101.00n/a28
Jan ’25US$116.07
US$136.59
+17.7%
9.2%US$164.00US$101.00n/a28
Dec ’24US$115.23
US$138.34
+20.1%
9.3%US$164.00US$98.00n/a28
Nov ’24US$116.67
US$136.23
+16.8%
10.7%US$164.00US$98.00n/a26
Oct ’24US$119.80
US$131.77
+10.0%
10.6%US$160.00US$98.00n/a26
Sep ’24US$122.14
US$130.38
+6.7%
10.0%US$153.00US$98.00n/a26
Aug ’24US$117.38
US$127.36
+8.5%
10.9%US$153.00US$94.00n/a25
Jul ’24US$103.61
US$129.12
+24.6%
12.4%US$165.00US$94.00n/a24
Jun ’24US$99.53
US$129.60
+30.2%
13.1%US$165.00US$94.00n/a25
May ’24US$102.53
US$129.62
+26.4%
13.0%US$167.00US$92.00n/a26
Apr ’24US$99.21
US$131.20
+32.2%
12.5%US$153.00US$87.00n/a25
Mar ’24US$106.25
US$133.68
+25.8%
12.4%US$160.00US$92.00n/a26
Feb ’24US$117.70
US$136.96
+16.4%
11.7%US$160.00US$96.00US$111.3826
Jan ’24US$118.00
US$138.63
+17.5%
12.2%US$167.00US$96.00US$116.0727
Dec ’23US$123.06
US$138.11
+12.2%
13.1%US$167.00US$96.00US$115.2327
Nov ’23US$127.78
US$129.63
+1.4%
12.4%US$167.00US$87.00US$116.6728
Oct ’23US$102.34
US$124.06
+21.2%
9.9%US$153.00US$96.00US$119.8026
Sep ’23US$107.53
US$122.06
+13.5%
9.5%US$153.00US$96.00US$122.1426
Aug ’23US$95.10
US$122.19
+28.5%
9.6%US$148.00US$96.00US$117.3826
Jul ’23US$90.98
US$128.00
+40.7%
10.8%US$160.00US$96.00US$103.6125
Jun ’23US$115.75
US$126.20
+9.0%
11.3%US$160.00US$96.00US$99.5325
May ’23US$95.52
US$122.80
+28.6%
13.3%US$160.00US$80.00US$102.5326
Apr ’23US$100.58
US$114.19
+13.5%
12.4%US$150.00US$80.00US$99.2126
Mar ’23US$96.96
US$103.25
+6.5%
9.9%US$120.00US$77.00US$106.2528
Feb ’23US$91.54
US$95.62
+4.5%
9.3%US$117.00US$77.00US$117.7028

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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