ConocoPhillips

NYSE:COP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$144.9b

ConocoPhillips Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

ConocoPhillips is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.9% and 3.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16% in 3 years.

Key information

6.9%

Earnings growth rate

10.73%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth10.7%
Revenue growth rate3.6%
Future return on equity15.99%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated06 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 09

COP: Future Cash Flows Will Track Elevated Middle East Oil Price Risks

Analysts have raised the ConocoPhillips fair value estimate by about $2.59 to $140.59. This reflects a series of higher price targets from major firms that are tying their views to updated oil price assumptions, geopolitical risk premiums, and modestly adjusted long term growth and margin expectations.
Narrative Update • Apr 24

COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Middle East Risks And Portfolio Moves

Analysts have raised ConocoPhillips’ fair value estimate from $131.52 to $138.00. This change reflects updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and a modestly lower assumed future P/E multiple, following a series of higher Street price targets tied to revised oil price assumptions and geopolitical risk.
New Narrative • Apr 23

Future LNG And Shale Execution Risks Will Pressure Cash Generation

Catalysts About ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company focused on oil, natural gas and LNG projects across the Lower 48 U.S. states, Alaska and international assets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
New Narrative • Apr 21

ConocoPhillips (COP): The Global Energy Sovereign and the "Cash Harvesting" Pivot

ConocoPhillips (COP) , the world’s largest independent oil and gas producer, enters Tuesday, April 21, 2026 , as a company masterfully navigating a high-volatility geopolitical landscape. Trading at $119.07 USD —marking a strong 2.26% surge in today's session—the stock is currently testing its 52-week high of $135.87.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 13

ConocoPhillips: Iran War To Be A Major Profit Catalyst

Summary ConocoPhillips offers concentrated upstream exposure, making it a prime beneficiary of surging petroleum prices amid escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Recent peace negotiation failures and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz support a higher-for-longer oil price thesis, directly boosting COP's earnings outlook. COP trades at 15.4X FY27 earnings, only 3% above its 3-year average, with 10 out of 14 recent earnings estimate revisions to the upside. I expect a significant Q1 earnings tailwind (~$260M) for COP, positioning it as an aggressive play on continued oil price strength versus more diversified peers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 09

COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Geopolitical Oil Risk And Cash Returns

Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for ConocoPhillips higher to $131.52 from $128.29 as widespread price target increases reflect updated oil price assumptions, slightly higher future P/E expectations around 20.6x, and revised margin outlooks across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ConocoPhillips has been active, with a series of price target revisions and rating changes driven largely by updated oil and gas price decks, geopolitical risk, and evolving expectations for cash generation and capital returns.
New Narrative • Apr 07

Long Life Projects And LNG Portfolio Will Drive Powerful Future Cash Flow Transformation

Catalysts About ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company focused on oil and natural gas, with a large Lower 48 shale position, LNG projects and long life assets in Alaska and internationally. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Mar 26

COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Higher Oil Risk And Dividend Capacity

Analysts have lifted their ConocoPhillips fair value estimate from $118.15 to $128.29, citing higher medium term oil price assumptions that are expected to contribute to revenue growth, a slightly richer future P/E multiple, and adjusted margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ConocoPhillips points to a split view, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets on the back of higher medium term oil price assumptions and a few more cautious voices flagging valuation risk and potential commodity softness.
Narrative Update • Mar 11

COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Dividend Capacity And Geopolitical Oil Risk

Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for ConocoPhillips up from $114.74 to $118.15, reflecting higher Street price targets tied to increased long term oil price assumptions, modest valuation multiple expansion, and expectations for stronger free cash flow as recent project spending rolls off. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ConocoPhillips reflects a wide range of opinions, with some focusing on upside from higher long term oil price assumptions and free cash flow, and others flagging valuation and commodity risk.
Narrative Update • Feb 10

COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Dividend Support And Venezuela Uncertainty

Analysts have raised their ConocoPhillips price targets by about $10. This reflects updated assumptions for slightly higher revenue growth, a modestly lower future P/E, and a small increase in estimated fair value to $114.74.
Narrative Update • Jan 26

COP: Future Cash Flows Will Strengthen As Dividend Capacity Expands

Narrative Update The updated analyst price target for ConocoPhillips edges higher to about US$113. Analysts point to slightly stronger margin assumptions, a modestly higher future P/E multiple, and refreshed views on dividend growth and valuation across recent research updates.
Narrative Update • Jan 11

COP: Free Cash Flow Will Improve As Peak Capex Eases And Volumes Advance

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on ConocoPhillips, with our fair value estimate edging from US$112.37 to about US$111.48 as they factor in a softer crude backdrop, updated 2025 and 2026 guidance, and mixed expectations around cash flow and organic growth. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around ConocoPhillips reflects a mix of optimism on execution and balance sheet quality, alongside caution around crude pricing and near term cash flow.
Narrative Update • Dec 25

COP: Free Cash Flow Will Strengthen As Peak Capex Fades And Production Increases

The analyst price target for ConocoPhillips edges slightly lower by approximately $0.02 to reflect modestly softer medium term growth and margin assumptions, as analysts recalibrate models following Q3 updates, refreshed 2025 and preliminary 2026 guidance, and a sector-wide bias toward gas over oil. Analyst Commentary Street research indicates that the modestly lower consolidated price target reflects mixed revisions at the single stock level, with most firms maintaining positive fundamental views while trimming outer year assumptions to reflect softer gas and NGL realizations and more conservative commodity decks.
Narrative Update • Dec 11

COP: Free Cash Flow Will Strengthen As Production Outperformance Follows Peak Capex

Our ConocoPhillips analyst price target edges slightly lower, reflecting a modest recalibration in fair value to $112.39 as analysts factor in updated Q3 results, 2025 guidance, and preliminary 2026 outlook. These elements temper cash flow expectations while still acknowledging solid production growth and capital returns.
Narrative Update • Nov 27

COP: Free Cash Flow Will Outperform as Workforce Reduction Improves Efficiency

ConocoPhillips' analyst price target saw a modest decrease of $0.63, as analysts cited updated company outlooks for 2025 and 2026 as well as evolving sector dynamics in their revised forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ConocoPhillips presents a blend of optimism for the company's prospects alongside some caution about sector headwinds and near-term execution challenges.
Analysis Article • Nov 13

Earnings Troubles May Signal Larger Issues for ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Shareholders

A lackluster earnings announcement from ConocoPhillips ( NYSE:COP ) last week didn't sink the stock price. However, we...
Narrative Update • Nov 12

COP: Free Cash Flow Strength Will Drive Outperformance Despite Sector Uncertainty

The consensus analyst price target for ConocoPhillips has edged slightly lower, decreasing by $0.24 to approximately $113.54. Analysts are adjusting their models following recent Q3 results and expectations for softer revenue growth, even with improved profit margins.
Analysis Article • Nov 10

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $0.84

ConocoPhillips ( NYSE:COP ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's comparable payment...
Narrative Update • Oct 29

Production Expansion And Capital Returns Will Drive Longer-Term Opportunity Despite Workforce Cuts

ConocoPhillips’ analyst price target has been revised downward by analysts, with the consensus fair value estimate dropping from $115.46 to $113.78 per share. This reflects tempered cash flow outlooks and shifting sector dynamics, despite resilient operational performance.
Narrative Update • Oct 15

Strong Global Energy Demand And LNG Projects Will Drive Future Momentum

Analysts have adjusted their price targets for ConocoPhillips slightly downward, with the updated consensus reflecting a modest decrease of around $1 to $115. This adjustment comes as analysts expect steady operational performance in the upcoming quarter but acknowledge headwinds from softer gas and NGL markets as well as mixed outlooks on cash flow and production growth.
Analysis Article • Jul 18

Insufficient Growth At ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Hampers Share Price

ConocoPhillips' ( NYSE:COP ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.3x might make it look like a buy right now...
Analysis Article • Jun 01

An Intrinsic Calculation For ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Suggests It's 34% Undervalued

Key Insights The projected fair value for ConocoPhillips is US$129 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...
Analysis Article • May 12

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.78

ConocoPhillips' ( NYSE:COP ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.78 per share on 2nd of June. Including this...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 30

Conoco Phillips: Undervalued Laggard Poised To Outperform

Summary ConocoPhillips (COP) stock has underperformed peers and the SPDR Energy Sector ETF, but its strong operational and financial performance supports a BUY rating. COP boasts a low-cost production profile; significant assets in the Permian Basin, Alaska, and LNG technology, contributing to its robust free-cash-flow. Despite generating $6.96/share of FCF last year, current price targets by 4 major Street firms average ~$130/share, 25%+ higher than COP's current stock price. Despite macro-economic risks, COP's strong balance sheet, a 3.0% dividend yield, and expected 18.8% production growth make it undervalued with a potential 30% total return. COP's disciplined cap-ex approach and strategic acquisitions, like Marathon Oil, position it well for future shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 23

ConocoPhillips: Starting 2025 With Marathon

Summary ConocoPhillips' $22 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil enhances reserves and production, adding 400,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day. The deal is expected to achieve $500 million in synergies within a year and supports a 34% dividend increase to $3.12 per share. With oil prices around $70 per barrel, ConocoPhillips' 2024 earnings are projected at $8 per share, trading at a mere 12 times multiple. Despite modest price headwinds, its strong balance sheet and disciplined sector production practices ensure continued investor returns, with a >3% dividend yield. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 22

ConocoPhillips: Trump Will Help, But Bound To Oil Volatility

Summary ConocoPhillips has shown recent gains but remains volatile due to its dependence on crude oil prices, leading me to rate it a hold. The Marathon Oil acquisition adds significant resources and showcases internal confidence, but revenue and earnings are still impacted by fluctuating oil prices. President Trump's pro-oil agenda could benefit COP, especially with the potential expansion of the Willow project in Alaska. Technical indicators suggest COP may be overbought, and its performance lags peers like EOG, Chevron, and ExxonMobil. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 21

ConocoPhillips' Merger With Marathon Oil Offers Synergies (Rating Upgrade)

Summary ConocoPhillips, a $123 billion market cap company, successfully completed its acquisition of the much smaller Marathon Oil. It has an investor-friendly capital return program with a 3.3% dividend, and large share repurchases. Pro forma post-acquisition annual cost savings are estimated at $500 million, while asset disposition is expected to total another $2 billion. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 18

ConocoPhillips: Navigating Market Pressures

Summary ConocoPhillips has a diversified portfolio and significant operations in 13 countries, with the Lower 48 segment contributing the largest revenue share. Recent underperformance is linked to the Marathon Oil acquisition, despite projected benefits like earnings accretion, cost synergies, and a planned dividend increase. Downward EPS revisions and slower growth prospects compared to peers weigh on COP, with a significant rebound in oil prices needed to reverse this trend. Despite short-term challenges, major analysts maintain a positive outlook with a consensus target price implying an 18% upside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:COP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202867,2559,51811,09422,5644
12/31/202765,94410,03710,40022,0426
12/31/202667,95010,8848,43923,4526
3/31/202659,3787,2985,85317,976N/A
12/31/202560,2797,9617,24319,796N/A
9/30/202561,2808,8247,08819,935N/A
6/30/202559,3869,1566,92319,820N/A
3/31/202559,0909,5168,67421,254N/A
12/31/202456,4509,2188,00620,124N/A
9/30/202456,9249,9169,24620,930N/A
6/30/202458,08010,6529,29920,612N/A
3/31/202456,82010,5538,28019,547N/A
12/31/202357,86110,9228,71719,965N/A
9/30/202361,83911,16010,39621,294N/A
6/30/202368,77512,88213,73924,589N/A
3/31/202377,69715,78718,75428,649N/A
12/31/202280,57518,62018,15528,314N/A
9/30/202276,89917,99218,40727,590N/A
6/30/202266,89015,86015,65923,647N/A
3/31/202254,90012,82212,71619,984N/A
12/31/202146,6608,06011,67216,996N/A
9/30/202136,7854,6807,97512,800N/A
6/30/202129,6411,8514,2168,871N/A
3/31/202122,772204944,777N/A
12/31/202019,216-2,707874,802N/A
9/30/202021,475-1,2098606,112N/A
6/30/202025,1002,2971,7867,581N/A
3/31/202030,4003,6173,66710,315N/A
12/31/201933,3467,189N/A11,104N/A
9/30/201935,4838,337N/A11,905N/A
6/30/201937,1807,142N/A12,978N/A
3/31/201937,8237,202N/A13,429N/A
12/31/201837,4916,257N/A12,934N/A
9/30/201835,8355,968N/A11,632N/A
6/30/201832,9764,527N/A9,277N/A
3/31/201831,166-553N/A7,686N/A
12/31/201729,878-855N/A7,077N/A
9/30/201728,551-2,469N/A6,039N/A
6/30/201728,022-3,929N/A6,264N/A
3/31/201726,491-1,560N/A5,772N/A
12/31/201623,745-3,615N/A4,403N/A
9/30/201623,017-7,030N/A4,556N/A
6/30/201624,147-7,061N/A5,210N/A
3/31/201627,270-6,169N/A5,925N/A
12/31/201530,219-4,428N/A7,572N/A
9/30/201535,646-1,017N/A8,787N/A
6/30/201541,0741,680N/A10,724N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: COP's forecast earnings growth (6.9% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: COP's earnings (6.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: COP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: COP's revenue (3.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: COP's revenue (3.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: COP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 23:48
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

ConocoPhillips is covered by 49 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William SeleskyArgus Research Company
Joseph AllmanBaird
Yim ChengBarclays