ConocoPhillips Dividends and Buybacks
Dividend criteria checks 4/6
ConocoPhillips is a dividend paying company with a current yield of 2.79% that is well covered by earnings. Next payment date is on 1st June, 2026 with an ex-dividend date of 11th May, 2026.
Key information
2.8%
Dividend yield
3.1%
Buyback Yield
| Total Shareholder Yield | 5.9% |
| Future Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Growth | 10.2% |
| Next dividend pay date | 01 Jun 26 |
| Ex dividend date | 11 May 26 |
| Dividend per share | n/a |
| Payout ratio | 55% |
Recent dividend and buyback updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 14
ConocoPhillips: More Upside Given Long-Term Cash Flow Tailwinds
Summary ConocoPhillips remains a "Buy," with ~15% upside to a $135 fair value, driven by sustained high oil prices post-Strait of Hormuz closure. COP's oil-weighted production and disciplined capex position it to benefit from the ongoing supply shock, despite headwinds from weak natural gas prices. Q2 and 2026 free cash flow are set to surge, with at least $12.5 billion expected this year and major projects like Willow and Port Arthur LNG driving medium-term growth. Balance sheet strength (0.8x leverage), a secure 2.9% yield, and a 45% cash return policy underpin COP's capital return and buyback acceleration. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 09
COP: Future Cash Flows Will Track Elevated Middle East Oil Price Risks
Analysts have raised the ConocoPhillips fair value estimate by about $2.59 to $140.59. This reflects a series of higher price targets from major firms that are tying their views to updated oil price assumptions, geopolitical risk premiums, and modestly adjusted long term growth and margin expectations.Narrative Update • Apr 24
COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Middle East Risks And Portfolio Moves
Analysts have raised ConocoPhillips’ fair value estimate from $131.52 to $138.00. This change reflects updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and a modestly lower assumed future P/E multiple, following a series of higher Street price targets tied to revised oil price assumptions and geopolitical risk.
New Narrative • Apr 23
Future LNG And Shale Execution Risks Will Pressure Cash Generation
Catalysts About ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company focused on oil, natural gas and LNG projects across the Lower 48 U.S. states, Alaska and international assets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
New Narrative • Apr 21
ConocoPhillips (COP): The Global Energy Sovereign and the "Cash Harvesting" Pivot
ConocoPhillips (COP) , the world’s largest independent oil and gas producer, enters Tuesday, April 21, 2026 , as a company masterfully navigating a high-volatility geopolitical landscape. Trading at $119.07 USD —marking a strong 2.26% surge in today's session—the stock is currently testing its 52-week high of $135.87.Narrative Update • Apr 09
COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Geopolitical Oil Risk And Cash Returns
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for ConocoPhillips higher to $131.52 from $128.29 as widespread price target increases reflect updated oil price assumptions, slightly higher future P/E expectations around 20.6x, and revised margin outlooks across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ConocoPhillips has been active, with a series of price target revisions and rating changes driven largely by updated oil and gas price decks, geopolitical risk, and evolving expectations for cash generation and capital returns.
New Narrative • Apr 07
Long Life Projects And LNG Portfolio Will Drive Powerful Future Cash Flow Transformation
Catalysts About ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company focused on oil and natural gas, with a large Lower 48 shale position, LNG projects and long life assets in Alaska and internationally. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 26
COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Higher Oil Risk And Dividend Capacity
Analysts have lifted their ConocoPhillips fair value estimate from $118.15 to $128.29, citing higher medium term oil price assumptions that are expected to contribute to revenue growth, a slightly richer future P/E multiple, and adjusted margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ConocoPhillips points to a split view, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets on the back of higher medium term oil price assumptions and a few more cautious voices flagging valuation risk and potential commodity softness.Narrative Update • Mar 11
COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Dividend Capacity And Geopolitical Oil Risk
Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for ConocoPhillips up from $114.74 to $118.15, reflecting higher Street price targets tied to increased long term oil price assumptions, modest valuation multiple expansion, and expectations for stronger free cash flow as recent project spending rolls off. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ConocoPhillips reflects a wide range of opinions, with some focusing on upside from higher long term oil price assumptions and free cash flow, and others flagging valuation and commodity risk.Narrative Update • Feb 10
COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Dividend Support And Venezuela Uncertainty
Analysts have raised their ConocoPhillips price targets by about $10. This reflects updated assumptions for slightly higher revenue growth, a modestly lower future P/E, and a small increase in estimated fair value to $114.74.Narrative Update • Jan 26
COP: Future Cash Flows Will Strengthen As Dividend Capacity Expands
Narrative Update The updated analyst price target for ConocoPhillips edges higher to about US$113. Analysts point to slightly stronger margin assumptions, a modestly higher future P/E multiple, and refreshed views on dividend growth and valuation across recent research updates.Narrative Update • Jan 11
COP: Free Cash Flow Will Improve As Peak Capex Eases And Volumes Advance
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on ConocoPhillips, with our fair value estimate edging from US$112.37 to about US$111.48 as they factor in a softer crude backdrop, updated 2025 and 2026 guidance, and mixed expectations around cash flow and organic growth. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around ConocoPhillips reflects a mix of optimism on execution and balance sheet quality, alongside caution around crude pricing and near term cash flow.Narrative Update • Dec 25
COP: Free Cash Flow Will Strengthen As Peak Capex Fades And Production Increases
The analyst price target for ConocoPhillips edges slightly lower by approximately $0.02 to reflect modestly softer medium term growth and margin assumptions, as analysts recalibrate models following Q3 updates, refreshed 2025 and preliminary 2026 guidance, and a sector-wide bias toward gas over oil. Analyst Commentary Street research indicates that the modestly lower consolidated price target reflects mixed revisions at the single stock level, with most firms maintaining positive fundamental views while trimming outer year assumptions to reflect softer gas and NGL realizations and more conservative commodity decks.Narrative Update • Dec 11
COP: Free Cash Flow Will Strengthen As Production Outperformance Follows Peak Capex
Our ConocoPhillips analyst price target edges slightly lower, reflecting a modest recalibration in fair value to $112.39 as analysts factor in updated Q3 results, 2025 guidance, and preliminary 2026 outlook. These elements temper cash flow expectations while still acknowledging solid production growth and capital returns.Narrative Update • Nov 27
COP: Free Cash Flow Will Outperform as Workforce Reduction Improves Efficiency
ConocoPhillips' analyst price target saw a modest decrease of $0.63, as analysts cited updated company outlooks for 2025 and 2026 as well as evolving sector dynamics in their revised forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ConocoPhillips presents a blend of optimism for the company's prospects alongside some caution about sector headwinds and near-term execution challenges.Analysis Article • Nov 13
Earnings Troubles May Signal Larger Issues for ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Shareholders
A lackluster earnings announcement from ConocoPhillips ( NYSE:COP ) last week didn't sink the stock price. However, we...Narrative Update • Nov 12
COP: Free Cash Flow Strength Will Drive Outperformance Despite Sector Uncertainty
The consensus analyst price target for ConocoPhillips has edged slightly lower, decreasing by $0.24 to approximately $113.54. Analysts are adjusting their models following recent Q3 results and expectations for softer revenue growth, even with improved profit margins.Analysis Article • Nov 10
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $0.84
ConocoPhillips ( NYSE:COP ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's comparable payment...Narrative Update • Oct 29
Production Expansion And Capital Returns Will Drive Longer-Term Opportunity Despite Workforce Cuts
ConocoPhillips’ analyst price target has been revised downward by analysts, with the consensus fair value estimate dropping from $115.46 to $113.78 per share. This reflects tempered cash flow outlooks and shifting sector dynamics, despite resilient operational performance.Narrative Update • Oct 15
Strong Global Energy Demand And LNG Projects Will Drive Future Momentum
Analysts have adjusted their price targets for ConocoPhillips slightly downward, with the updated consensus reflecting a modest decrease of around $1 to $115. This adjustment comes as analysts expect steady operational performance in the upcoming quarter but acknowledge headwinds from softer gas and NGL markets as well as mixed outlooks on cash flow and production growth.Analysis Article • Jul 18
Insufficient Growth At ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Hampers Share Price
ConocoPhillips' ( NYSE:COP ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.3x might make it look like a buy right now...Analysis Article • Jun 01
An Intrinsic Calculation For ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Suggests It's 34% Undervalued
Key Insights The projected fair value for ConocoPhillips is US$129 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...Seeking Alpha • Mar 30
Conoco Phillips: Undervalued Laggard Poised To Outperform
Summary ConocoPhillips (COP) stock has underperformed peers and the SPDR Energy Sector ETF, but its strong operational and financial performance supports a BUY rating. COP boasts a low-cost production profile; significant assets in the Permian Basin, Alaska, and LNG technology, contributing to its robust free-cash-flow. Despite generating $6.96/share of FCF last year, current price targets by 4 major Street firms average ~$130/share, 25%+ higher than COP's current stock price. Despite macro-economic risks, COP's strong balance sheet, a 3.0% dividend yield, and expected 18.8% production growth make it undervalued with a potential 30% total return. COP's disciplined cap-ex approach and strategic acquisitions, like Marathon Oil, position it well for future shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 23
ConocoPhillips: Starting 2025 With Marathon
Summary ConocoPhillips' $22 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil enhances reserves and production, adding 400,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day. The deal is expected to achieve $500 million in synergies within a year and supports a 34% dividend increase to $3.12 per share. With oil prices around $70 per barrel, ConocoPhillips' 2024 earnings are projected at $8 per share, trading at a mere 12 times multiple. Despite modest price headwinds, its strong balance sheet and disciplined sector production practices ensure continued investor returns, with a >3% dividend yield. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 22
ConocoPhillips: Trump Will Help, But Bound To Oil Volatility
Summary ConocoPhillips has shown recent gains but remains volatile due to its dependence on crude oil prices, leading me to rate it a hold. The Marathon Oil acquisition adds significant resources and showcases internal confidence, but revenue and earnings are still impacted by fluctuating oil prices. President Trump's pro-oil agenda could benefit COP, especially with the potential expansion of the Willow project in Alaska. Technical indicators suggest COP may be overbought, and its performance lags peers like EOG, Chevron, and ExxonMobil. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 21
ConocoPhillips' Merger With Marathon Oil Offers Synergies (Rating Upgrade)
Summary ConocoPhillips, a $123 billion market cap company, successfully completed its acquisition of the much smaller Marathon Oil. It has an investor-friendly capital return program with a 3.3% dividend, and large share repurchases. Pro forma post-acquisition annual cost savings are estimated at $500 million, while asset disposition is expected to total another $2 billion. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 18
ConocoPhillips: Navigating Market Pressures
Summary ConocoPhillips has a diversified portfolio and significant operations in 13 countries, with the Lower 48 segment contributing the largest revenue share. Recent underperformance is linked to the Marathon Oil acquisition, despite projected benefits like earnings accretion, cost synergies, and a planned dividend increase. Downward EPS revisions and slower growth prospects compared to peers weigh on COP, with a significant rebound in oil prices needed to reverse this trend. Despite short-term challenges, major analysts maintain a positive outlook with a consensus target price implying an 18% upside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaStability and Growth of Payments
Fetching dividends data
Stable Dividend: COP's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.
Growing Dividend: COP's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.
Dividend Yield vs Market
| ConocoPhillips Dividend Yield vs Market |
|---|
| Segment | Dividend Yield |
|---|---|
| Company (COP) | 2.8% |
| Market Bottom 25% (US) | 1.4% |
| Market Top 25% (US) | 4.2% |
| Industry Average (Oil and Gas) | 3.2% |
| Analyst forecast (COP) (up to 3 years) | 3.0% |
Notable Dividend: COP's dividend (2.79%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.41%).
High Dividend: COP's dividend (2.79%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.24%).
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (55%), COP's dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (69.9%), COP's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/25 08:18 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
ConocoPhillips is covered by 49 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| William Selesky | Argus Research Company |
| Joseph Allman | Baird |
| Yim Cheng | Barclays |