ConocoPhillips (COP): Valuation Check After Q3 2025 Beat and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance

ConocoPhillips (COP) just delivered a Q3 2025 beat, lifting full year production guidance while trimming operating cost expectations, even as Wall Street stays cautious about oversupply risks and choppy geopolitics in the oil market.

See our latest analysis for ConocoPhillips.

Despite the Q3 beat and the Marathon Oil integration story, ConocoPhillips’ 1 month share price return of 7.26% sits against a weaker year to date share price return of minus 4.54%, while its 5 year total shareholder return of 179.13% still highlights a strong long term compounding story.

If this kind of cyclical energy setup has you thinking about other opportunities, it could be worth scanning aerospace and defense stocks for differentiated growth and resilience dynamics beyond oil.

With the stock trading below consensus targets despite upgraded guidance and long dated LNG and shale catalysts, is ConocoPhillips quietly undervalued here, or are markets already pricing in every ounce of its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 15% Undervalued

With ConocoPhillips last closing at $95.54 against a narrative fair value of about $112.39, the valuation case leans heavily on future cash flow strength.

The company's expanding LNG portfolio and progress on large scale liquefaction projects (notably in Qatar, Port Arthur, and Willow) are set to capture significant market share from robust global gas demand, especially as natural gas solidifies its role as a transition fuel. These projects are expected to drive a substantial free cash flow inflection and topline revenue expansion through 2029.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest top line assumptions still justify a richer earnings multiple? The narrative leans on rising margins and a powerful free cash flow reset. Want to see the exact roadmap behind that jump in valuation?

Result: Fair Value of $112.39 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, execution risk on capital intensive LNG and Willow projects, alongside weaker-for-longer commodity prices, could easily derail that optimistic free cash flow reset.

Find out about the key risks to this ConocoPhillips narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

On earnings, ConocoPhillips looks less of a bargain. It trades on about 13.4 times earnings, slightly richer than both the US Oil and Gas industry at 13.3 times and its peer group at 12.4 times. This suggests less potential for multiple expansion if sentiment or growth expectations soften.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own ConocoPhillips Narrative

If you see the setup differently or simply prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can spin up a custom view in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ConocoPhillips research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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