A Fresh Look at ConocoPhillips's Valuation Following Analyst Endorsements and Strategic LNG Moves

ConocoPhillips (COP) has been drawing attention as major investment banks, including RBC Capital, continue to back the company’s outlook. Management is actively repositioning through new LNG supply deals and targeted workforce reductions.

See our latest analysis for ConocoPhillips.

ConocoPhillips shares have come under pressure lately, slipping 7.4% in the past week and now down nearly 12% year-to-date. While sentiment has weakened after last year's challenging stretch, as reflected in a 13.5% one-year total shareholder return decline, the company's bigger picture shows long-term resilience, with a remarkable 221% total shareholder return over five years. Management’s recent LNG deals and ongoing operational shifts seem aimed at restoring momentum, even as the market re-evaluates risk and growth potential.

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With analyst price targets far above current levels and sentiment shifting in response to strategic moves, the central question remains: Is ConocoPhillips undervalued at this price, or has the market already accounted for its future growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 23.6% Undervalued

With ConocoPhillips closing at $88.17, the narrative’s fair value estimate of $115.46 suggests clear upside potential versus the market. The latest outlook leans heavily on future growth from strategic LNG investments and operational shifts.

"The company's expanding LNG portfolio and progress on large-scale liquefaction projects (notably in Qatar, Port Arthur, and Willow) are set to capture significant market share from robust global gas demand, especially as natural gas solidifies its role as a 'transition fuel.' These projects are expected to drive a substantial free cash flow inflection and topline revenue expansion through 2029."

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why this price target stands out? The driving force behind this bold valuation is a set of growth assumptions that challenge conventional thinking. Unlock the details to discover which ambitious projections fuel this high-stakes fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $115.46 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, significant execution risks in large-scale LNG projects and volatility in oil and gas prices could undermine the company’s growth and margin expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this ConocoPhillips narrative.

Build Your Own ConocoPhillips Narrative

If you have your own perspective or want to dig into the numbers yourself, crafting your independent analysis takes just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ConocoPhillips research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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