Canadian Natural Resources Limited

NYSE:CNQ Stock Report

Market Cap: US$73.5b

Canadian Natural Resources Valuation

Is CNQ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CNQ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CNQ ($34.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($65.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CNQ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CNQ?

Key metric: As CNQ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CNQ. This is calculated by dividing CNQ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CNQ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.5x
EarningsCA$7.60b
Market CapCA$102.80b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CNQ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CNQ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.4x
EOG EOG Resources
10.4x-2.7%US$76.7b
FANG Diamondback Energy
16.4x11.1%US$54.1b
COP ConocoPhillips
13.8x0.6%US$144.6b
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources
12.9x0.7%US$62.5b
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources
13.5x2.8%US$102.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CNQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CNQ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
EVVA.Q Enviva
n/an/aUS$74.00
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
CNQ 13.5xIndustry Avg. 11.6xNo. of Companies18PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CNQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CNQ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CNQ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.5x
Fair PE Ratio14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CNQ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CNQ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$34.03
US$40.18
+18.1%
7.1%US$45.06US$34.33n/a20
Nov ’25US$33.88
US$40.32
+19.0%
7.1%US$45.14US$34.39n/a20
Oct ’25US$34.78
US$40.47
+16.4%
8.7%US$45.95US$32.61n/a20
Sep ’25US$36.21
US$40.96
+13.1%
7.6%US$45.31US$35.08n/a20
Aug ’25US$34.96
US$40.40
+15.6%
7.5%US$44.69US$33.88n/a20
Jul ’25US$35.90
US$40.72
+13.4%
7.1%US$45.26US$34.31n/a20
Jun ’25US$38.42
US$41.44
+7.9%
7.1%US$46.10US$34.39n/a20
May ’25US$37.48
US$40.23
+7.4%
8.6%US$45.76US$33.05n/a21
Apr ’25US$38.55
US$38.21
-0.9%
7.5%US$44.30US$33.22n/a21
Mar ’25US$36.04
US$36.69
+1.8%
6.2%US$40.57US$31.71n/a22
Feb ’25US$31.56
US$35.87
+13.7%
6.2%US$39.18US$32.09n/a22
Jan ’25US$32.76
US$36.60
+11.7%
5.6%US$39.53US$32.38n/a22
Dec ’24US$33.95
US$35.92
+5.8%
6.2%US$41.30US$32.60n/a22
Nov ’24US$32.35
US$35.28
+9.1%
6.3%US$40.38US$32.09US$33.8821
Oct ’24US$32.34
US$34.85
+7.8%
5.9%US$38.91US$31.87US$34.7821
Sep ’24US$32.46
US$33.82
+4.2%
4.6%US$36.87US$30.24US$36.2121
Aug ’24US$30.46
US$34.05
+11.8%
6.0%US$37.96US$30.37US$34.9621
Jul ’24US$28.13
US$33.78
+20.1%
6.6%US$37.74US$30.20US$35.9020
Jun ’24US$27.44
US$33.53
+22.2%
7.9%US$38.57US$29.38US$38.4220
May ’24US$30.13
US$34.31
+13.9%
8.3%US$41.06US$29.86US$37.4821
Apr ’24US$27.68
US$33.80
+22.1%
7.1%US$38.70US$29.48US$38.5521
Mar ’24US$28.98
US$34.55
+19.2%
9.5%US$44.06US$28.38US$36.0421
Feb ’24US$29.60
US$34.64
+17.0%
9.4%US$44.34US$28.56US$31.5622
Jan ’24US$27.77
US$33.94
+22.2%
8.6%US$43.20US$29.29US$32.7621
Dec ’23US$29.89
US$34.80
+16.5%
8.4%US$43.92US$29.78US$33.9520
Nov ’23US$30.18
US$33.45
+10.8%
8.6%US$43.30US$28.62US$32.3520

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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