Green Plains Inc.

NasdaqGS:GPRE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$606.4m

Green Plains Valuation

Is GPRE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GPRE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GPRE ($9.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($43.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GPRE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GPRE?

Key metric: As GPRE is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GPRE. This is calculated by dividing GPRE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GPRE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.2x
SalesUS$2.59b
Market CapUS$606.43m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GPRE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GPRE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
REX REX American Resources
1x11.1%US$703.6m
CLNE Clean Energy Fuels
1.4x19.3%US$572.0m
OPAL OPAL Fuels
0.3x18.1%US$516.8m
DK Delek US Holdings
0.07x-9.5%US$1.0b
GPRE Green Plains
0.2x8.6%US$606.4m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GPRE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GPRE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

39 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.1.6x3.6%
GPRE Green Plains
 0.2x8.6%US$606.43m
PSX Phillips 66
0.3x-5.2%US$45.58b
MPC Marathon Petroleum
0.3x-3.3%US$42.87b
GPRE 0.2xIndustry Avg. 1.6xNo. of Companies39PS01.63.24.86.48+
39 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.1.6x8.3%
GPRE Green Plains
 0.2x60.0%US$606.43m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GPRE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (1.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GPRE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GPRE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.2x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GPRE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GPRE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$9.38
US$20.69
+120.5%
24.1%US$28.00US$13.00n/a8
Dec ’25US$10.80
US$20.69
+91.6%
24.1%US$28.00US$13.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$11.94
US$22.21
+86.0%
19.5%US$28.00US$15.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$13.07
US$25.50
+95.1%
25.5%US$40.00US$17.00n/a9
Sep ’25US$14.17
US$26.50
+87.0%
28.1%US$40.00US$17.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$17.58
US$29.38
+67.1%
23.1%US$40.00US$18.00n/a11
Jul ’25US$15.54
US$30.11
+93.8%
20.8%US$40.00US$18.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$17.17
US$30.66
+78.6%
17.5%US$40.00US$22.00n/a11
May ’25US$20.12
US$33.84
+68.2%
25.8%US$55.00US$24.00n/a11
Apr ’25US$22.80
US$34.38
+50.8%
25.0%US$55.00US$24.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$21.26
US$34.61
+62.8%
24.7%US$55.00US$24.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$20.77
US$35.60
+71.4%
24.4%US$55.00US$25.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$25.22
US$40.30
+59.8%
18.1%US$55.00US$29.00n/a10
Dec ’24US$25.44
US$40.30
+58.4%
18.1%US$55.00US$29.00US$10.8010
Nov ’24US$27.86
US$40.30
+44.7%
18.1%US$55.00US$29.00US$11.9410
Oct ’24US$30.10
US$41.70
+38.5%
16.7%US$55.00US$31.00US$13.0710
Sep ’24US$31.20
US$41.70
+33.7%
16.7%US$55.00US$31.00US$14.1710
Aug ’24US$35.40
US$42.80
+20.9%
14.9%US$55.00US$31.00US$17.5810
Jul ’24US$32.24
US$42.80
+32.8%
14.9%US$55.00US$31.00US$15.5410
Jun ’24US$29.02
US$42.80
+47.5%
14.9%US$55.00US$31.00US$17.1710
May ’24US$34.01
US$43.60
+28.2%
14.6%US$55.00US$33.00US$20.1210
Apr ’24US$30.99
US$44.56
+43.8%
13.3%US$55.00US$35.00US$22.809
Mar ’24US$35.33
US$45.00
+27.4%
12.9%US$55.00US$35.00US$21.269
Feb ’24US$34.94
US$44.44
+27.2%
12.6%US$55.00US$35.00US$20.779
Jan ’24US$30.50
US$43.40
+42.3%
14.9%US$55.00US$31.00US$25.2210
Dec ’23US$34.83
US$43.22
+24.1%
15.7%US$55.00US$31.00US$25.449

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 03:46
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Green Plains Inc. is covered by 22 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Heather JonesBB&T Capital Markets
Kenneth ZaslowBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Salvator TianoBofA Global Research