Green Plains Inc.

NasdaqGS:GPRE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$682.1m

Green Plains Valuation

Is GPRE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GPRE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GPRE ($10.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($44.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GPRE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GPRE?

Key metric: As GPRE is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GPRE. This is calculated by dividing GPRE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GPRE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesUS$2.59b
Market CapUS$682.07m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GPRE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GPRE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
REX REX American Resources
1.1x8.3%US$772.1m
CLNE Clean Energy Fuels
1.4x19.7%US$589.9m
OPAL OPAL Fuels
0.3x18.1%US$634.3m
DK Delek US Holdings
0.08x-12.3%US$1.1b
GPRE Green Plains
0.3x8.6%US$682.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GPRE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GPRE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

37 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.1.9x3.2%
GPRE Green Plains
 0.3x8.6%US$682.07m
PSX Phillips 66
0.4x-5.4%US$54.08b
MPC Marathon Petroleum
0.4x-3.6%US$51.04b
GPRE 0.3xIndustry Avg. 1.9xNo. of Companies37PS01.63.24.86.48+
37 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.1.9x8.1%
GPRE Green Plains
 0.3x60.0%US$682.07m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GPRE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GPRE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GPRE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GPRE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GPRE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$10.88
US$20.69
+90.1%
24.1%US$28.00US$13.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$11.94
US$22.21
+86.0%
19.5%US$28.00US$15.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$13.07
US$25.50
+95.1%
25.5%US$40.00US$17.00n/a9
Sep ’25US$14.17
US$26.50
+87.0%
28.1%US$40.00US$17.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$17.58
US$29.38
+67.1%
23.1%US$40.00US$18.00n/a11
Jul ’25US$15.54
US$30.11
+93.8%
20.8%US$40.00US$18.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$17.17
US$30.66
+78.6%
17.5%US$40.00US$22.00n/a11
May ’25US$20.12
US$33.84
+68.2%
25.8%US$55.00US$24.00n/a11
Apr ’25US$22.80
US$34.38
+50.8%
25.0%US$55.00US$24.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$21.26
US$34.61
+62.8%
24.7%US$55.00US$24.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$20.77
US$35.60
+71.4%
24.4%US$55.00US$25.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$25.22
US$40.30
+59.8%
18.1%US$55.00US$29.00n/a10
Dec ’24US$25.44
US$40.30
+58.4%
18.1%US$55.00US$29.00n/a10
Nov ’24US$27.86
US$40.30
+44.7%
18.1%US$55.00US$29.00US$11.9410
Oct ’24US$30.10
US$41.70
+38.5%
16.7%US$55.00US$31.00US$13.0710
Sep ’24US$31.20
US$41.70
+33.7%
16.7%US$55.00US$31.00US$14.1710
Aug ’24US$35.40
US$42.80
+20.9%
14.9%US$55.00US$31.00US$17.5810
Jul ’24US$32.24
US$42.80
+32.8%
14.9%US$55.00US$31.00US$15.5410
Jun ’24US$29.02
US$42.80
+47.5%
14.9%US$55.00US$31.00US$17.1710
May ’24US$34.01
US$43.60
+28.2%
14.6%US$55.00US$33.00US$20.1210
Apr ’24US$30.99
US$44.56
+43.8%
13.3%US$55.00US$35.00US$22.809
Mar ’24US$35.33
US$45.00
+27.4%
12.9%US$55.00US$35.00US$21.269
Feb ’24US$34.94
US$44.44
+27.2%
12.6%US$55.00US$35.00US$20.779
Jan ’24US$30.50
US$43.40
+42.3%
14.9%US$55.00US$31.00US$25.2210
Dec ’23US$34.83
US$43.22
+24.1%
15.7%US$55.00US$31.00US$25.449
Nov ’23US$29.08
US$44.00
+51.3%
16.0%US$55.00US$31.00US$27.869

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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