We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Green Plains Valuation

Is GPRE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GPRE?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

GPRE key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA115.9x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GPRE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GPRE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.2x
INT World Fuel Services
0.03x-11.6%US$1.7b
DK Delek US Holdings
0.1x-20.6%US$1.8b
PARR Par Pacific Holdings
0.2x-3.8%US$1.6b
CLMT Calumet Specialty Products Partners
0.3x5.2%US$1.3b
GPRE Green Plains
0.6x-3.7%US$2.1b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GPRE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (0.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GPRE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-11.1%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GPRE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (1.5x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GPRE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GPRE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.6x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GPRE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GPRE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GPRE ($34.94) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($180.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GPRE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GPRE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$34.94
US$44.44
+27.2%
12.6%US$55.00US$35.00n/a9
Jan ’24US$30.50
US$43.40
+42.3%
14.9%US$55.00US$31.00n/a10
Dec ’23US$34.83
US$43.22
+24.1%
15.7%US$55.00US$31.00n/a9
Nov ’23US$29.08
US$44.00
+51.3%
16.0%US$55.00US$31.00n/a9
Oct ’23US$29.07
US$48.67
+67.4%
8.2%US$55.00US$43.00n/a9
Sep ’23US$35.56
US$48.67
+36.9%
8.2%US$55.00US$43.00n/a9
Aug ’23US$35.67
US$48.00
+34.6%
9.2%US$55.00US$40.00n/a10
Jul ’23US$28.87
US$48.09
+66.6%
8.7%US$55.00US$40.00n/a11
Jun ’23US$34.70
US$48.09
+38.6%
8.7%US$55.00US$40.00n/a11
May ’23US$28.07
US$48.45
+72.6%
8.5%US$55.00US$41.00n/a11
Apr ’23US$31.49
US$48.82
+55.0%
7.4%US$55.00US$45.00n/a11
Mar ’23US$33.13
US$48.82
+47.4%
7.4%US$55.00US$45.00n/a11
Feb ’23US$31.99
US$50.09
+56.6%
9.0%US$60.00US$45.00US$34.9411
Jan ’23US$34.76
US$49.45
+42.3%
10.4%US$60.00US$42.00US$30.5011
Dec ’22US$37.40
US$49.80
+33.2%
10.6%US$60.00US$42.00US$34.8310
Nov ’22US$38.94
US$45.70
+17.4%
10.7%US$55.00US$40.00US$29.0810
Oct ’22US$35.04
US$46.10
+31.6%
9.9%US$55.00US$42.00US$29.0710
Sep ’22US$36.01
US$46.10
+28.0%
9.9%US$55.00US$42.00US$35.5610
Aug ’22US$35.36
US$41.00
+16.0%
8.4%US$46.00US$36.00US$35.6710
Jul ’22US$34.36
US$39.75
+15.7%
9.0%US$46.00US$36.00US$28.878
Jun ’22US$32.34
US$39.75
+22.9%
9.0%US$46.00US$36.00US$34.708
May ’22US$29.80
US$37.63
+26.3%
15.6%US$46.00US$29.00US$28.078
Apr ’22US$31.10
US$34.57
+11.2%
14.1%US$43.00US$28.00US$31.497
Mar ’22US$25.87
US$33.29
+28.7%
14.2%US$43.00US$28.00US$33.137
Feb ’22US$20.40
US$21.57
+5.7%
20.1%US$28.00US$17.00US$31.997

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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