NasdaqGS:GPRE

Stock Analysis Report

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Market Cap

US$1.5b

Last Updated

2021/06/25 00:08 UTC

Data Sources

Company Financials +

Share Price & News

How has Green Plains's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: GPRE is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GPRE's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.8%

GPRE

2.8%

US Oil and Gas

1.3%

US Market


1 Year Return

234.0%

GPRE

48.8%

US Oil and Gas

42.4%

US Market

Return vs Industry: GPRE exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 39.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GPRE exceeded the US Market which returned 39% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

GPREIndustryMarket
7 Day1.8%2.8%1.3%
30 Day13.8%8.6%2.8%
90 Day22.2%11.6%7.2%
1 Year234.0%234.0%58.1%48.8%44.7%42.4%
3 Year89.7%84.1%-9.6%-22.2%64.6%54.4%
5 Year81.4%68.0%3.7%-16.7%126.8%101.3%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Green Plains's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Green Plains undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GPRE ($32.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($202.47)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GPRE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GPRE is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US Oil and Gas industry average.

PE vs Market: GPRE is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GPRE's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GPRE's PB Ratio (1.8x) is in line with the US Oil and Gas industry average.


Future Growth

How is Green Plains forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

57.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GPRE is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: GPRE is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: GPRE's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GPRE's revenue (4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (9.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GPRE's revenue (4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GPRE's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.6%).


Past Performance

How has Green Plains performed over the past 5 years?

-58.6%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GPRE is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: GPRE is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GPRE is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 58.6% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare GPRE's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: GPRE is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (-42.9%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: GPRE has a negative Return on Equity (-8.83%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Financial Health

How is Green Plains's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GPRE's short term assets ($1.0B) exceed its short term liabilities ($421.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: GPRE's short term assets ($1.0B) exceed its long term liabilities ($602.6M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GPRE's debt to equity ratio (84%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: GPRE's debt to equity ratio has increased from 82.3% to 84% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GPRE's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (5.7%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if GPRE's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.


Balance Sheet


Dividend

What is Green Plains's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.45%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: GPRE's dividend (1.48%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.31%).

High Dividend: GPRE's dividend (1.48%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.44%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: GPRE has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: GPRE's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 8 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: GPRE is paying a dividend but the company is unprofitable.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of GPRE's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Todd Becker (55 yo)

12.42yrs

Tenure

US$3,081,617

Compensation

Mr. Todd A. Becker serves as the President and Chief Executive officer at Green Plains Grain Company TN LLC. Mr. Becker has been the Chief Executive Officer at Green Plains Inc. since January 1, 2009 and i...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Todd's total compensation ($USD3.08M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD3.71M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Todd's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GPRE's management team is considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: GPRE's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 12.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: GPRE insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 25.7%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Green Plains Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Green Plains Inc.
  • Ticker: GPRE
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 2004
  • Industry: Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing
  • Sector: Energy
  • Market Cap: US$1.478b
  • Shares outstanding: 44.63m
  • Website: https://www.gpreinc.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Green Plains Inc.
  • 1811 Aksarben Drive
  • Omaha
  • Nebraska
  • 68106
  • United States

Listings


Biography

Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, Food and Ingr...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/06/25 00:08
End of Day Share Price2021/06/24 00:00
Earnings2021/03/31
Annual Earnings2020/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.