Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRE) After Its First-Quarter Report

Investors in Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRE) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.8% to close at US$4.07 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$602m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$1.14 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Green Plains after the latest results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Green Plains' nine analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$2.49b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 70% to US$0.48. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$2.51b and US$0.54 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a notable improvement in losses per share in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for Green Plains

The average price target held steady at US$9.94, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Green Plains, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$25.00 and the most bearish at US$4.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Green Plains' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Green Plains.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Green Plains analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Green Plains that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.