Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRE) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRE) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. It definitely looks like a negative result overall with revenues falling 16% short of analyst estimates at US$553m. Statutory losses were US$1.09 per share, 217% bigger than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Green Plains' eight analysts is for revenues of US$2.26b in 2025, which would reflect a discernible 5.9% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$2.43 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.56b and losses of US$1.55 per share in 2025. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

See our latest analysis for Green Plains

The consensus price target fell 11% to US$8.81, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Green Plains analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 11% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Green Plains' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Green Plains. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Green Plains. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Green Plains analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Green Plains' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.