Need To Know: Analysts Are Much More Bullish On Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) Revenues

Shareholders in Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Aemetis will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected. Aemetis has also found favour with investors, with the stock up an extraordinary 80% to US$3.22 over the past week. It will be interesting to see if today's upgrade is enough to propel the stock even higher.

After the upgrade, the six analysts covering Aemetis are now predicting revenues of US$298m in 2023. If met, this would reflect a substantial 44% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing US$265m of revenue in 2023. The consensus has definitely become more optimistic, showing a nice gain to revenue forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Aemetis

We'd point out that there was no major changes to their price target of US$11.05, suggesting the latest estimates were not enough to shift their view on the value of the business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aemetis analyst has a price target of US$28.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Aemetis' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 63% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.1% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 3.6% annually. It seems obvious that as part of the brighter growth outlook, Aemetis is expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The highlight for us was that analysts increased their revenue forecasts for Aemetis this year. They're also forecasting for revenues to perform better than companies in the wider market. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at Aemetis.

Analysts are clearly in love with Aemetis at the moment, but before diving in - you should be aware that we've identified some warning flags with the business, such as a short cash runway. You can learn more, and discover the 1 other flag we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.