Results: Radian Group Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Radian Group Inc. (NYSE:RDN) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$334m arriving 2.4% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$0.99, 6.0% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Radian Group after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Radian Group

After the latest results, the five analysts covering Radian Group are now predicting revenues of US$1.34b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 5.3% to US$3.81 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.75 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$35.93, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Radian Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$41.00 and the most bearish at US$32.00 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Radian Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.5% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.6% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.0% per year. So although Radian Group's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Radian Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Radian Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Radian Group (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.