Stock Analysis

The five-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on OneMain Holdings (NYSE:OMF) shareholders as stock falls 7.5% over the past week

NYSE:OMF
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The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. Long term OneMain Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:OMF) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 177% in five years. In contrast, the stock has fallen 9.0% in the last 30 days. This could be related to the soft market, with stocks down around 6.4% in the last month.

In light of the stock dropping 7.5% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

OneMain Holdings' earnings per share are down 7.5% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

In fact, the dividend has increased over time, which is a positive. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:OMF Earnings and Revenue Growth April 1st 2025

OneMain Holdings is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for OneMain Holdings in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

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What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, OneMain Holdings' TSR for the last 5 years was 387%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

OneMain Holdings shareholders are up 5.5% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 37% per year for five years. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - OneMain Holdings has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.