Earnings Miss: Here's What Shift4 Payments, Inc. (NYSE:FOUR) Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Shift4 Payments, Inc. (NYSE:FOUR) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Shift4 Payments missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$909m and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.74, falling short by 6.6% and 7.5% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Shift4 Payments

Following the latest results, Shift4 Payments' 18 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.48b in 2025. This would be a major 42% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 85% to US$3.33. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.62b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.42 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 13% to US$110, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Shift4 Payments, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$126 and the most bearish at US$48.91 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Shift4 Payments'historical trends, as the 33% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 33% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.4% annually. So although Shift4 Payments is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shift4 Payments. They also downgraded Shift4 Payments' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Shift4 Payments. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Shift4 Payments going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Shift4 Payments is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.