Upstart Holdings Valuation
Is UPST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
0/6Valuation Score 0/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of UPST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: UPST ($74.06) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($7.6)
Significantly Below Fair Value: UPST is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPST?
Key metric: As UPST is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is UPST's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 11.2x |
| Sales | US$604.94m |
| Market Cap | US$6.76b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 12.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -51.2x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does UPST's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 3.8x | ||
OMF OneMain Holdings | 2.7x | 24.9% | US$6.8b |
CACC Credit Acceptance | 6.8x | 32.8% | US$5.7b |
SLM SLM | 3.6x | 4.5% | US$5.8b |
QFIN Qifu Technology | 2.3x | 4.9% | US$5.4b |
UPST Upstart Holdings | 11.2x | 20.3% | US$6.8b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (11.2x) compared to the peer average (3.8x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does UPST's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Finance Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (11.2x) compared to the US Consumer Finance industry average (1.6x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is UPST's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 11.2x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 3.3x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (11.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$74.06 | US$51.21 -30.9% | 55.1% | US$90.00 | US$12.00 | n/a | 12 |
| Nov ’25 | US$48.48 | US$30.62 -36.8% | 47.4% | US$56.00 | US$9.00 | n/a | 13 |
| Oct ’25 | US$37.78 | US$25.00 -33.8% | 47.8% | US$48.00 | US$9.00 | n/a | 13 |
| Sep ’25 | US$42.50 | US$23.38 -45.0% | 43.5% | US$37.00 | US$9.00 | n/a | 13 |
| Aug ’25 | US$25.40 | US$19.96 -21.4% | 38.1% | US$31.00 | US$9.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Jul ’25 | US$22.90 | US$18.96 -17.2% | 36.8% | US$30.00 | US$9.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Jun ’25 | US$24.72 | US$19.12 -22.7% | 36.3% | US$30.00 | US$9.00 | n/a | 13 |
| May ’25 | US$22.87 | US$20.61 -9.9% | 34.4% | US$30.00 | US$9.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Apr ’25 | US$26.43 | US$20.76 -21.5% | 34.4% | US$30.00 | US$9.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Mar ’25 | US$26.32 | US$20.94 -20.5% | 34.4% | US$30.00 | US$9.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Feb ’25 | US$32.30 | US$21.47 -33.5% | 45.7% | US$42.00 | US$6.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Jan ’25 | US$40.86 | US$19.85 -51.4% | 49.7% | US$42.00 | US$6.00 | n/a | 13 |
| Dec ’24 | US$32.37 | US$19.15 -40.8% | 42.3% | US$32.00 | US$6.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Nov ’24 | US$24.59 | US$23.81 -3.2% | 60.2% | US$64.00 | US$6.00 | US$48.48 | 15 |
| Oct ’24 | US$28.54 | US$24.07 -15.7% | 60.2% | US$64.00 | US$6.00 | US$37.78 | 15 |
| Sep ’24 | US$32.95 | US$25.00 -24.1% | 64.3% | US$64.00 | US$6.00 | US$42.50 | 14 |
| Aug ’24 | US$72.09 | US$22.86 -68.3% | 88.8% | US$72.00 | US$6.00 | US$25.40 | 14 |
| Jul ’24 | US$35.81 | US$16.46 -54.0% | 59.0% | US$42.00 | US$6.00 | US$22.90 | 13 |
| Jun ’24 | US$29.75 | US$12.65 -57.5% | 26.1% | US$17.00 | US$6.00 | US$24.72 | 13 |
| May ’24 | US$12.98 | US$11.73 -9.6% | 28.0% | US$17.00 | US$6.00 | US$22.87 | 13 |
| Apr ’24 | US$15.89 | US$11.79 -25.8% | 28.9% | US$17.00 | US$6.00 | US$26.43 | 12 |
| Mar ’24 | US$17.94 | US$13.38 -25.4% | 32.6% | US$24.00 | US$6.00 | US$26.32 | 12 |
| Feb ’24 | US$20.20 | US$14.54 -28.0% | 27.5% | US$24.00 | US$8.00 | US$32.30 | 12 |
| Jan ’24 | US$13.22 | US$16.29 +23.2% | 38.8% | US$33.00 | US$10.00 | US$40.86 | 12 |
| Dec ’23 | US$19.04 | US$16.13 -15.3% | 39.7% | US$33.00 | US$10.00 | US$32.37 | 12 |
| Nov ’23 | US$22.17 | US$24.42 +10.1% | 32.7% | US$37.00 | US$14.00 | US$24.59 | 12 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.
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