Upstart Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:UPST Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.3b

Upstart Holdings Valuation

Is UPST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UPST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$31.91
Fair Value
178.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: UPST ($88.77) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($31.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UPST is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPST?

Key metric: As UPST is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for UPST. This is calculated by dividing UPST's market cap by their current revenue.
What is UPST's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio12.3x
SalesUS$676.96m
Market CapUS$6.29b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does UPST's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for UPST vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.1x
CACC Credit Acceptance
6.5x37.6%US$6.1b
OMF OneMain Holdings
2.6x24.9%US$6.8b
SLM SLM
4.3x7.6%US$6.1b
QFIN Qifu Technology
2.8x4.8%US$6.4b
UPST Upstart Holdings
12.3x20.4%US$6.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.3x) compared to the peer average (4.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does UPST's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Finance Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OPRT Oportun Financial
0.3x10.9%US$206.50m
ELVT Elevate Credit
0.1x1.0%US$58.83m
KPLT Katapult Holdings
0.2x6.3%US$40.17m
AIJT.Y Jianpu Technology
0.05xn/aUS$6.76m
UPST 12.3xIndustry Avg. 1.6xNo. of Companies10PS01.22.43.64.86+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.3x) compared to the US Consumer Finance industry average (1.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UPST's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UPST PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio12.3x
Fair PS Ratio3.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UPST forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$88.77
US$77.92
-12.2%
42.4%US$110.00US$12.00n/a13
Feb ’26US$64.75
US$62.18
-4.0%
49.2%US$100.00US$12.00n/a14
Jan ’26US$61.57
US$63.19
+2.6%
49.9%US$100.00US$12.00n/a13
Dec ’25US$78.79
US$54.54
-30.8%
54.8%US$90.00US$12.00n/a12
Nov ’25US$48.48
US$30.62
-36.8%
47.4%US$56.00US$9.00n/a13
Oct ’25US$37.78
US$25.00
-33.8%
47.8%US$48.00US$9.00n/a13
Sep ’25US$42.50
US$23.38
-45.0%
43.5%US$37.00US$9.00n/a13
Aug ’25US$25.40
US$19.96
-21.4%
38.1%US$31.00US$9.00n/a14
Jul ’25US$22.90
US$18.96
-17.2%
36.8%US$30.00US$9.00n/a14
Jun ’25US$24.72
US$19.12
-22.7%
36.3%US$30.00US$9.00n/a13
May ’25US$22.87
US$20.61
-9.9%
34.4%US$30.00US$9.00n/a14
Apr ’25US$26.43
US$20.76
-21.5%
34.4%US$30.00US$9.00n/a14
Mar ’25US$26.32
US$20.94
-20.5%
34.4%US$30.00US$9.00n/a14
Feb ’25US$32.30
US$21.47
-33.5%
45.7%US$42.00US$6.00US$64.7515
Jan ’25US$40.86
US$19.85
-51.4%
49.7%US$42.00US$6.00US$61.5713
Dec ’24US$32.37
US$19.15
-40.8%
42.3%US$32.00US$6.00US$78.7914
Nov ’24US$24.59
US$23.81
-3.2%
60.2%US$64.00US$6.00US$48.4815
Oct ’24US$28.54
US$24.07
-15.7%
60.2%US$64.00US$6.00US$37.7815
Sep ’24US$32.95
US$25.00
-24.1%
64.3%US$64.00US$6.00US$42.5014
Aug ’24US$72.09
US$22.86
-68.3%
88.8%US$72.00US$6.00US$25.4014
Jul ’24US$35.81
US$16.46
-54.0%
59.0%US$42.00US$6.00US$22.9013
Jun ’24US$29.75
US$12.65
-57.5%
26.1%US$17.00US$6.00US$24.7213
May ’24US$12.98
US$11.73
-9.6%
28.0%US$17.00US$6.00US$22.8713
Apr ’24US$15.89
US$11.79
-25.8%
28.9%US$17.00US$6.00US$26.4312
Mar ’24US$17.94
US$13.38
-25.4%
32.6%US$24.00US$6.00US$26.3212
Feb ’24US$20.20
US$14.54
-28.0%
27.5%US$24.00US$8.00US$32.3012
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
US$77.92
Fair Value
13.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/12 05:04
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/12 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is covered by 20 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Ramsey El-AssalBarclays
Mihir BhatiaBofA Global Research