Upstart Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:UPST Stock Report

Mkt Cap: US$2.4b

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Upstart Holdings Valuation

Is UPST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPST?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

UPST key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-12.8x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does UPST's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for UPST vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.8x
QFIN Qifu Technology
1x12.8%US$2.3b
SOFI SoFi Technologies
4.1x16.5%US$6.6b
LU Lufax Holding
0.4x-0.7%US$3.1b
PRG PROG Holdings
0.6x0.9%US$1.6b
UPST Upstart Holdings
3.6x13.4%US$2.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x) compared to the peer average (1.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UPST's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Finance Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.9%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.9%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x) compared to the US Consumer Finance industry average (0.8x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UPST's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UPST PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.6x
Fair PS Ratio1.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UPST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate UPST's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate UPST's fair value for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UPST forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$28.23
US$12.81
-54.6%
26.2%US$17.00US$6.00n/a13
May ’24US$12.98
US$11.73
-9.6%
28.0%US$17.00US$6.00n/a13
Apr ’24US$15.89
US$11.79
-25.8%
28.9%US$17.00US$6.00n/a12
Mar ’24US$17.94
US$13.38
-25.4%
32.6%US$24.00US$6.00n/a12
Feb ’24US$20.20
US$14.54
-28.0%
27.5%US$24.00US$8.00n/a12
Jan ’24US$13.22
US$16.29
+23.2%
38.8%US$33.00US$10.00n/a12
Dec ’23US$19.04
US$16.13
-15.3%
39.7%US$33.00US$10.00n/a12
Nov ’23US$22.17
US$24.42
+10.1%
32.7%US$37.00US$14.00n/a12
Oct ’23US$20.79
US$26.42
+27.1%
32.0%US$38.00US$14.00n/a12
Sep ’23US$25.95
US$26.42
+1.8%
32.0%US$38.00US$14.00n/a12
Aug ’23US$23.94
US$31.29
+30.7%
48.6%US$69.00US$14.00n/a12
Jul ’23US$32.82
US$44.62
+35.9%
41.5%US$80.00US$15.00n/a13
Jun ’23US$45.96
US$49.92
+8.6%
40.5%US$88.00US$15.00US$29.7513
May ’23US$75.02
US$174.92
+133.2%
35.8%US$255.00US$75.00US$12.9813
Apr ’23US$109.03
US$202.45
+85.7%
37.6%US$350.00US$75.00US$15.8911
Mar ’23US$145.40
US$213.80
+47.0%
32.6%US$350.00US$110.00US$17.9410
Feb ’23US$117.33
US$212.98
+81.5%
41.5%US$350.00US$90.00US$20.2011
Jan ’23US$151.30
US$253.16
+67.3%
25.9%US$350.00US$154.80US$13.2211
Dec ’22US$179.65
US$286.23
+59.3%
21.5%US$390.00US$154.80US$19.048
Nov ’22US$344.73
US$305.53
-11.4%
21.1%US$390.00US$154.80US$22.179
Oct ’22US$298.77
US$275.53
-7.8%
29.8%US$390.00US$154.80US$20.799
Sep ’22US$226.81
US$199.11
-12.2%
16.4%US$253.00US$154.80US$25.957
Aug ’22US$120.76
US$139.29
+15.3%
18.7%US$190.00US$101.00US$23.947
Jul ’22US$123.92
US$138.00
+11.4%
20.2%US$190.00US$101.00US$32.826
Jun ’22US$144.49
US$131.17
-9.2%
13.2%US$152.00US$101.00US$45.966

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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