Will Analyst Uncertainty Around UPST’s Valuation Shift Upstart’s Long-Term Investment Story?

• In the past week, Upstart Holdings, Inc. experienced a significant decline compared to its industry and the broader market, as the company's earnings outlook revealed both upward and downward revisions despite a premium valuation relative to peers. This mixed analyst sentiment persists even as Upstart has historically exceeded earnings estimates and delivered strong revenue growth.
• This situation highlights the influence of valuation concerns and uncertain earnings projections on investor confidence around Upstart's future performance.
• Given the heightened focus on Upstart's premium valuation, we'll explore how recent analyst views may reshape the company's investment narrative going forward.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 30 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.

Upstart Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Upstart Holdings, you’d need confidence in the company’s ability to maintain its momentum as a profitable AI-driven lending business, despite recent volatility and a premium valuation. The recent stock price decline, spurred by mixed analyst revisions to earnings estimates, does not fundamentally alter the central catalyst in the near term, maintaining accuracy and consistency in Upstart’s underwriting models. However, it sharpens attention on earnings stability as the main risk.

Among the recent developments, the Q3 2025 earnings announcement stands out, with Upstart posting stronger-than-expected revenue and positive net income. This result shows progress in profitability, which remains vital for sustaining platform partner confidence and supporting loan growth as funding conditions fluctuate.

But as markets react quickly to shifting earnings forecasts, it’s equally important to consider that accuracy gaps in Upstart’s underwriting models could…

Read the full narrative on Upstart Holdings (it's free!)

Upstart Holdings' narrative projects $1.8 billion in revenue and $337.2 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 27.2% yearly revenue growth and a $343.6 million increase in earnings from the current -$6.4 million.

Uncover how Upstart Holdings' forecasts yield a $55.38 fair value, a 32% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Sixteen individual fair value predictions from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$21.91 to US$85 per share. With recent focus on stable earnings and ongoing model performance, many investors are weighing Upstart’s profit turnaround against future funding and loan quality challenges.

Explore 16 other fair value estimates on Upstart Holdings - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Upstart Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Upstart Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Upstart Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Upstart Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

Want Some Alternatives?

Every day counts. These free picks are already gaining attention. See them before the crowd does:

• Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 35 stocks are leading the charge.
• These 12 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.
• The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 25 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com