Qifu Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:QFIN) Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a pretty great week for Qifu Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:QFIN) shareholders, with its shares surging 19% to US$18.36 in the week since its latest yearly results. Qifu Technology reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of CN¥16b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥26.08, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Qifu Technology

Following the latest results, Qifu Technology's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥17.6b in 2024. This would be a meaningful 8.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 14% to CN¥30.15. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥18.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥30.53 in 2024. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of US$22.60, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Qifu Technology's market value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Qifu Technology at US$27.27 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.96. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Qifu Technology is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Qifu Technology's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Qifu Technology.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$22.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Qifu Technology going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Qifu Technology that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.