Should Marqeta’s (MQ) New CEO and Strong Revenue Offset Cautious Profit Guidance From Contract Renewals?

• On September 8, 2025, Marqeta announced the appointment of Mike Milotich as its permanent Chief Executive Officer and new Board member, while also reporting second-quarter revenues that surpassed analysts’ expectations and showed a year-on-year increase of 20.1%.
• Despite these operational highlights, management issued a cautious outlook regarding future profitability due to anticipated headwinds from upcoming major contract renewals expected to impact gross profit growth starting in late 2025.
• Next, we examine how Marqeta’s cautious long-term profit guidance following contract renewals impacts its broader investment narrative.

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Marqeta Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Marqeta today, you need conviction that its platform can continue benefiting from the accelerating shift to digital payments and embedded finance, while weathering key-client dependency and growing competition. The recent leadership appointment and upbeat Q2 revenue do not fundamentally alter the most important short-term catalyst, new large enterprise partnerships, nor do they meaningfully lessen the biggest near-term risk: major contract renewals impacting gross profit from late 2025 onward.

Among recent company announcements, the completion of a sizable share buyback stands out. This underpins management’s confidence in Marqeta’s long-term potential and acts as a support lever for shareholder value, but does not change the weight of upcoming contract renegotiations as the most significant risk to near-term performance.

By contrast, investors should be aware that as two major client contracts come up for renewal, profit growth could be pressured just as...

Read the full narrative on Marqeta (it's free!)

Marqeta's narrative projects $900.6 million revenue and $47.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires 17.6% yearly revenue growth and a $112.6 million increase in earnings from -$64.7 million today.

Uncover how Marqeta's forecasts yield a $7.02 fair value, a 20% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Six individual Simply Wall St Community members estimate Marqeta’s fair value in a wide range from US$3.70 to US$8 per share. The company’s dependency on a few large customers remains a key consideration with major contract renewals on the horizon, underscoring why your views on revenue stability may differ from others.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Marqeta - why the stock might be worth 37% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Marqeta Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Marqeta research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Marqeta research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Marqeta's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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