Kaspi.kz (KSPI): Assessing Valuation After Strong Fintech Growth and Upcoming ‘Pay by Palm’ Launch

Kaspi.kz (KSPI) just wrapped up a quarter that turned heads, with revenue climbing 20% year over year and its Fintech segment outpacing that, as investors weigh what the upcoming Pay by Palm launch could mean.

See our latest analysis for Kaspi.kz.

Despite the strong Q3 update and excitement around Pay by Palm, Kaspi.kz’s 1 year total shareholder return of minus 29.65 percent and year to date share price return of minus 24.37 percent show momentum has cooled after a solid multiyear run.

If this kind of platform led growth story has your attention, it could be a good moment to explore other high growth tech and fintech names using high growth tech and AI stocks.

With shares still well below analyst targets despite double digit growth, the key debate now is whether Kaspi.kz is trading at a discount to its long term potential, or if the market has already priced in that future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 30.6% Undervalued

With Kaspi.kz last closing at $75.33 versus a narrative fair value of about $108.57, the story being told points to a sizable gap.

The rollout and success of higher yield deposit products are accelerating customer acquisition and bringing new funds onto the platform, positioning Kaspi.kz to benefit from greater transaction flow and, once interest rates decline, a significant rebound in fintech margins and earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of growth and margin roadmap can support that higher valuation, even as profitability assumptions step down from today’s levels? The full narrative unpacks the earnings trajectory, revenue expansion, and the future multiple the market would need to accept for that fair value to make sense.

Result: Fair Value of $108.57 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering regulatory uncertainty and higher for longer interest rates could squeeze margins and delay the earnings recovery that supports this undervaluation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Kaspi.kz narrative.

Build Your Own Kaspi.kz Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom Kaspi.kz view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Kaspi.kz research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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