Carlyle Group (CG): Exploring Current Valuation After Recent Share Price Shift

Carlyle Group (CG) shares have been moving steadily, catching the eye of investors who track long-term performance. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a return of 19%, with gains since January as well.

See our latest analysis for Carlyle Group.

Momentum in Carlyle Group’s share price has cooled this month after a strong rally year-to-date, with a recent drop pulling the price down to $56.13. Still, the stock’s 1-year total shareholder return of 19% points to a healthy trend overall. This suggests investors remain optimistic about longer-term prospects.

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With shares now sitting well below analyst targets despite solid financial growth, the question remains: is Carlyle Group an undervalued opportunity at current levels, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.6% Undervalued

Carlyle Group's widely tracked narrative points to a fair value that is well above the last closing price of $56.13, signaling room for upside if expectations play out. The narrative rests on the company leveraging new partnerships and global growth drivers. This is an important moment for investors to examine the catalysts behind this valuation.

Expanding global wealth and broader retail investor participation, including new evergreen products (e.g., CAPM, CPEP) and strategic partnerships (e.g., UBS), are driving robust and recurring fundraising. This positions Carlyle to further broaden its AUM base and capture a greater share of the growing demand for private market solutions, which is likely to boost fee revenues and long-term earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know which major financial shifts propel Carlyle Group’s premium price target? The underlying projections hinge on bold margin gains and a striking profit trajectory. Curious which unique profit levers justify this optimistic valuation? Find out what’s fueling the consensus outlook and if the numbers truly back the narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $68.08 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent competition and regulatory changes could put pressure on Carlyle's margins and disrupt the positive outlook that currently supports its premium valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Carlyle Group narrative.

Another View: What Does the SWS DCF Model Say?

While analysts see upside based on earnings growth projections, our DCF model offers a more cautious perspective. According to this approach, Carlyle Group is actually trading above its estimated fair value. This raises the question: are market expectations running ahead of the company’s true cash flow potential?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Carlyle Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Carlyle Group Narrative

If you see things differently, or want to dig into the numbers yourself, it only takes a few minutes to build your own perspective and Do it your way

A great starting point for your Carlyle Group research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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