Is Genius Sports Still Attractive After Recent Partnerships and Strong Multi Year Share Price Gains

• If you have been wondering whether Genius Sports is still a smart bet at around $10 a share, you are not alone. This stock has quietly become a lightning rod for valuation debates.
• After a choppy month where the share price fell about 10.2% but is still up 18.9% year to date and more than 100% over three years, the market is clearly still trying to decide how much long term growth to price in.
• Recently, headlines have focused on Genius Sports expanding key data and streaming partnerships with major sports leagues and betting operators, deepening its position at the center of the sports analytics ecosystem. At the same time, regulatory conversations around sports betting integrity and data rights have kept the stock on the radar of both growth seekers and risk conscious investors.
• Right now Genius Sports scores a 3/6 on our valuation checks. This suggests pockets of undervaluation but not an across the board bargain. Next we will unpack what different valuation approaches say about that, before finishing with a more holistic way to think about what the stock might really be worth.

Genius Sports delivered 1.1% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Hospitality industry.

Approach 1: Genius Sports Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back into today s dollars.

For Genius Sports, the latest twelve month free cash flow is about $6.8 million, but analysts and model projections expect that figure to scale rapidly, with free cash flow estimated to reach roughly $413.9 million by 2035. The path there is not linear. Early years draw on analyst forecasts up to 2029, then Simply Wall St extrapolates growth based on a slowing trajectory as the business matures.

Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model built on these projections, the DCF estimate of intrinsic value comes out at about $20.60 per share in $. Compared with a market price around $10, the model implies Genius Sports is trading at roughly a 50.9% discount to its calculated fair value, suggesting investors are not fully pricing in the projected cash flow expansion.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Genius Sports is undervalued by 50.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 925 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Genius Sports.

Approach 2: Genius Sports Price vs Sales

For growth oriented but not yet consistently profitable companies, the price to sales ratio is often a more practical yardstick than earnings based metrics, because it focuses on how much investors are paying for each dollar of revenue today, rather than volatile or negative earnings.

In general, faster growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher normal multiple, while slower or uncertain growth usually pulls a fair range lower. Genius Sports currently trades on a price to sales multiple of about 3.99x, which is well above both the Hospitality industry average of roughly 1.65x and the peer group average around 1.49x. This suggests the market is already pricing in stronger growth and a strategic edge.

Simply Wall St s Fair Ratio framework refines this comparison by estimating what multiple would be reasonable given Genius Sports specific earnings growth profile, industry dynamics, margins, market cap and risk factors. On that basis, the stock s Fair Ratio is about 1.36x, materially below the current 3.99x price to sales. That gap indicates the shares are trading richer than the fundamentals and risk adjusted growth outlook would typically support.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1441 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Genius Sports Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St s Community page that lets you attach a story your view on Genius Sports markets, margins and risks to a set of numbers, linking that story to a financial forecast for revenue, earnings and profitability, and then to an explicit fair value you can compare to today s price to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell. The whole view updates dynamically as new earnings or news arrives. One investor might build a bullish Genius Sports Narrative around rapid 18.5% annual revenue growth, margins rising toward 13%, and a fair value near the top of the analyst range around $16. A more cautious investor might focus on competitive and regulatory risks, assume earnings closer to the low end near $36.5 million, and land on a fair value closer to $11. This illustrates how Narratives turn different perspectives into clear, comparable valuations without needing a spreadsheet.

Do you think there's more to the story for Genius Sports? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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