Does Boyd Gaming Offer Value After Its 14% Rally and New FanDuel Partnership?

Thinking about what to do with Boyd Gaming stock right now? Whether you’re already holding shares or considering a new position, there’s no denying this Las Vegas-based operator has been on quite a run over the last few years. Sure, the 7-day and 30-day price dips of -1.5% and -0.1% might make some folks hesitate, but step back a bit and the positive trend stands out: Boyd has delivered a 14.3% return year-to-date, 25.4% over the past year, and a stellar 147.6% over the last five years. It’s clear something’s working here, and the recent moves aren’t just random market noise. They reflect shifting attitudes about risk, the gaming sector’s long-term outlook, and possibly some cautious optimism regarding regulatory developments that have made headlines.

But all those numbers beg the biggest question: is Boyd Gaming actually undervalued, or has the market already caught up with its potential? Let’s get specific. The company scores a 4 out of 6 on our value checklist, with points added for each area where it seems meaningfully cheap. That’s promising, but how do the underlying numbers stack up across several tried-and-true valuation methods? Next, we’ll break down each approach and see where Boyd comes out ahead. Hang on until the end, where we’ll introduce a smarter way to get a complete read on the company’s true value.

Boyd Gaming delivered 25.4% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Hospitality industry.

Approach 1: Boyd Gaming Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today's dollars. For Boyd Gaming, this approach starts with an examination of its most recent Free Cash Flow (FCF), which stands at $520.5 Million. Analysts forecast steady growth, with FCF expected to reach $553.7 Million by 2027. Beyond the analyst estimates, projections are extended out to 2035 using moderate growth rates, resulting in an anticipated FCF of $713.2 Million by that year.

All cash flows are calculated in dollars, using a two-stage model that considers both immediate analyst expectations and longer-term trends modeled by Simply Wall St. After discounting these cash flows to their present value, the DCF model estimates an intrinsic value of $95.48 per share. This suggests that the stock is about 14% undervalued relative to its current trading price.

For investors, this indicates Boyd Gaming's shares are currently trading at a meaningful discount, largely due to the company's consistent cash generation and growth outlook. For those seeking value in the hospitality sector, the DCF analysis highlights a potentially compelling opportunity.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Boyd Gaming.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Boyd Gaming is undervalued by 14.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Boyd Gaming Price vs Earnings (PE Ratio)

The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is a widely accepted metric for evaluating profitable companies like Boyd Gaming. It compares a company’s current share price to its earnings per share, offering a quick snapshot of how the market values each dollar of profit. Since Boyd is solidly profitable, the PE ratio gives a relevant benchmark that considers both recent results and investors’ expectations for the future.

It is important to remember that growth prospects and perceived risks play a big role in what qualifies as a “normal” PE ratio for any given stock. Generally, companies growing faster, operating in stable industries, or enjoying higher profit margins tend to command higher PE ratios. In comparison, businesses facing uncertainty or slower growth will usually have lower multiples attached to them.

Right now, Boyd Gaming is trading at a PE ratio of 11.7x. For context, the hospitality industry average sits at 23.8x, and key peers are around 24.3x. This looks like a significant discount at first glance. However, benchmarks like industry or peer averages can sometimes paint an incomplete picture. To address this, Simply Wall St offers its proprietary “Fair Ratio,” a more nuanced measure that considers unique factors such as expected earnings growth, industry outlook, company profit margins, overall risks, and market cap. In Boyd's case, the Fair Ratio lands at 17.8x, reflecting its strengths alongside relevant risks and growth rates. Comparing the current PE of 11.7x with the Fair Ratio of 17.8x, the stock appears to be trading meaningfully below its fair valuation based on earnings multiples.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Boyd Gaming Narrative

Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. Narratives are a simple but powerful way for investors to connect their personal perspective on Boyd Gaming’s future with a financial forecast and a fair value. This turns the company’s story and catalysts into real numbers, estimates, and price targets.

Each Narrative links what you believe about Boyd Gaming’s business (such as its growth prospects, risks, or expansion plans) to forecasted revenue, earnings, and margins, and calculates a fair value that you can compare to the current share price. This approach is easy, accessible, and available to anyone via the Community page on Simply Wall St, where millions of investors already share and track their own Narratives.

Narratives become especially powerful because they update dynamically with new events, news, or earnings. This helps you make more informed decisions as fresh information becomes available. For example, some investors currently have an optimistic Narrative for Boyd, projecting a fair value as high as $101.00 based on confidence in FanDuel’s online growth and property upgrades. Others see a more cautious story and assign a lower fair value of $80.00, reflecting economic uncertainties and competitive pressures.

Do you think there's more to the story for Boyd Gaming? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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