Boyd Gaming Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

There's been a notable change in appetite for Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE:BYD) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 15% to US$53.18. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$961m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 12% to hit US$1.40 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Boyd Gaming

Following last week's earnings report, Boyd Gaming's 14 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$3.73b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 5.8% to US$6.15. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.26 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target fell 5.7% to US$72.16, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Boyd Gaming, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$80.00 and the most bearish at US$65.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Boyd Gaming is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.3% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Boyd Gaming is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Boyd Gaming going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Boyd Gaming that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.