Earnings Beat: Dutch Bros Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

A week ago, Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE:BROS) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$355m, some 3.3% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.13, 33% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering Dutch Bros are now predicting revenues of US$1.59b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 71% to US$0.59. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.61 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Dutch Bros

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$76.01, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Dutch Bros at US$82.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$63.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Dutch Bros' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Dutch Bros' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 23% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 28% p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.8% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Dutch Bros is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Dutch Bros going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Dutch Bros has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.