Return Trends At Wendy's (NASDAQ:WEN) Aren't Appealing

June 22, 2023

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Wendy's (NASDAQ:WEN) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Wendy's, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.071 = US$355m ÷ (US$5.4b - US$400m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to April 2023).

Therefore, Wendy's has an ROCE of 7.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Hospitality industry average of 9.1%.

View our latest analysis for Wendy's

In the above chart we have measured Wendy's' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

SWOT Analysis for Wendy's

Strength

No major strengths identified for WEN.

Weakness

Earnings declined over the past year.

Interest payments on debt are not well covered.

Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.

Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

Have WEN insiders been buying lately?

Threat

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

Dividends are not covered by cash flow.

Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Is WEN well equipped to handle threats?

What Does the ROCE Trend For Wendy's Tell Us?

In terms of Wendy's' historical ROCE trend, it doesn't exactly demand attention. Over the past five years, ROCE has remained relatively flat at around 7.1% and the business has deployed 30% more capital into its operations. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.

The Bottom Line

In summary, Wendy's has simply been reinvesting capital and generating the same low rate of return as before. Since the stock has gained an impressive 46% over the last five years, investors must think there's better things to come. However, unless these underlying trends turn more positive, we wouldn't get our hopes up too high.

If you'd like to know more about Wendy's, we've spotted 2 warning signs, and 1 of them can't be ignored.

While Wendy's may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Wendy's might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

Access Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.