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Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc.NasdaqGS:TAST Stock Report

Market Cap US$478.6m
Share Price
n/a
US$9.55
n/aintrinsic discount
1Y77.0%
7D0.1%
Portfolio Value
View

Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc.

NasdaqGS:TAST Stock Report

Market Cap: US$478.6m

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

Carrols Restaurant Group (TAST) Stock Overview

Through its subsidiaries, operates restaurants in the United States. More details

TAST fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth3/6
Past Performance3/6
Financial Health1/6
Dividends2/6

TAST Community Fair Values

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Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Carrols Restaurant Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$9.54
52 Week HighUS$9.56
52 Week LowUS$4.29
Beta2.47
1 Month Change0.53%
3 Month Change1.06%
1 Year Change76.99%
3 Year Change63.36%
5 Year Change10.03%
Change since IPO-37.24%

Recent News & Updates

Seeking Alpha Mar 28

Carrols: No Meat Left On This Bone, Sell

Summary Restaurant Brands International is acquiring Carrols Restaurant Group to accelerate the rate of remodeling and drive sales growth for Burger King. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2024, subject to anti-trust regulations and shareholder approval. Investors who bought shares of Carrols should sell now and consider redeploying their funds elsewhere, as the merger arbitrage spread is not attractive. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha Mar 28

Carrols: No Meat Left On This Bone, Sell

Summary Restaurant Brands International is acquiring Carrols Restaurant Group to accelerate the rate of remodeling and drive sales growth for Burger King. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2024, subject to anti-trust regulations and shareholder approval. Investors who bought shares of Carrols should sell now and consider redeploying their funds elsewhere, as the merger arbitrage spread is not attractive. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article Jan 17

Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TAST) Share Price Boosted 30% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TAST ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 30% gain in the last...
Analysis Article Nov 17

Solid Earnings Reflect Carrols Restaurant Group's (NASDAQ:TAST) Strength As A Business

Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TAST ) recently posted some strong earnings, and the market responded...
Analysis Article Nov 10

Does Carrols Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:TAST) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Analysis Article May 13

Is Carrols Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:TAST) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article Jan 09

Carrols Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:TAST) Has Debt But No Earnings; Should You Worry?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Seeking Alpha Sep 26

Carrols Restaurant Group: Valuation Starting To Improve

Summary Carrols Restaurant Group is down 80% from its 2021 highs, with the recent leg down attributed to a sharp decline in profitability in Q2. However, it's possible that Q2 marked the trough for margins if beef costs continue declining, and while traffic is down in the industry, quick-service names should benefit from trading down. That said, at 12x EV/EBITDA and with TAST more than 15% above its next support level at $1.35, I still don't see an attractive reward/risk bet just yet. Just over two months ago, I wrote on Carrols Restaurant Group (TAST), noting that the valuation didn't offer enough margin of safety. At the same time, Restaurant Brands International (QSR) was trading at its cheapest levels in years. It was the far more attractive way to get exposure to Burger King/Popeye's, given that it has a fully-franchised model and exposure to two other iconic brands (Firehouse Subs, Tim Hortons). Since then, TAST has declined by more than 22%, and QSR has outperformed by 3100 basis points. This can be attributed to Restaurant Brands International's [RBI] strong Q2 beat, with better than expected results at Tim Hortons. Carrols Restaurant Group (Company Presentation) Unfortunately, for Carrols, it was another tough quarter, with the company reporting an adjusted net loss driven by continued pressure from commodity/wage inflation. While RBI's system hasn't been immune from inflationary pressures, its fully-franchised model, which is more inflation-resistant, and aggressive buyback program have helped it to enjoy annual earnings per share growth. Although 2023 should be a better year for Carrols as it works hard on new initiatives and with beef costs potentially peaking, I still don't see enough margin of safety at current levels. Hence, I wouldn't be in any rush to buy the stock at $1.65. Q2 Results Carrols Restaurant Group ("Carrols") released its Q2 results last month, reporting quarterly revenue of $441.9 million, a 4% increase from the year-ago period. From a same-restaurant sales standpoint, Burger King reported 2.8% growth and continued to outperform the US system. In comparison, Popeye's reported 2.0% growth, outperforming the US system, but lapping very easy year-over-year comps. From a two-year stacked growth standpoint, same-restaurant sales for Burger King came in at an impressive 15.4% (Q2 2021: 12.6%), offset by Popeye's, which saw negative two-year same-restaurant sales despite taking price, with many brands struggling to hold the line on traffic. Carrols - Quarterly Revenue (Company Filings, Author's Chart) Overall, these were satisfactory sales results, especially considering the tough comparisons, with the industry lapping a tailwind from stimulus payments in Q1/Q2 2021 and having multiple major headwinds this year: soaring gas prices, higher mortgage costs, and rising grocery prices. Unfortunately, while sales were slightly better than expected, profitability continued to suffer, impacted by rising commodity costs and wage inflation. This was evidenced by Carrols' cost of goods sold jumping to 31.9% and labor costs increasing to 33.8%. Given the higher costs, adjusted EBITDA and restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA declined to $15.1 million and $34.6 million, respectively. These were quite unfavorable relative to $29.3 million and $47.9 million in the year-ago period, with restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA margins dipping to 7.8% vs. 11.3%. This led to an adjusted net loss in the period of $8.9 million, down from quarterly net income of $16,000 in Q1 2021. To combat these inflationary pressures, the company plans another modest price increase in September, with menu pricing set to remain at high single-digit levels on a year-over-year basis. So, what's the good news? While the headline numbers weren't pretty, the company appears to continue to work on initiatives to turn its results around, which include the following: raising the bar on operational excellence related to the guest experience improving productivity/improving turnover by motivating team members turning around the most challenged locations using best practices The company appears to have made solid progress on the first initiative, with drive-thru wait times below 2020/2021 levels. Meanwhile, the company noted that it is seeing applicant flow improve, which could be related to the sharp increase in wages vs. pre-pandemic levels and the more challenging macro environment, which is pushing some back to work in the industry vs. staying home. Carrols noted that it expects to see some of the progress shine through in future results, even if it wasn't evident in the Q2 results, which didn't quite meet expectations, resulting in a sharp decline in the stock. Industry-Wide Outlook & Headwinds If we look at the industry, traffic declined sharply year-over-year this summer, with consumers getting hit from every angle, with soaring gas prices being the straw that broke the consumer's wallet. Fortunately, gas prices have fallen sharply from their highs above $5.00/gallon, and even if rising grocery prices, higher mortgage payments, and the reverse wealth effect are headwinds, I would expect these to be a larger issue for casual dining brands, and less so quick-service restaurants and pizza. Burger King Menu Offerings (Company Website) This is because quick service restaurants and pizza tend to benefit in recessionary environments, with most consumers unable to stop 'treating' themselves but instead settling for trade-down options. Meanwhile, quick-service and pizza are very high from a convenience standpoint without breaking the bank, which certainly benefits Carrols, with two quick-service brands: Popeye's and Burger King. Finally, while all restaurants are raising prices to combat wage/commodity inflation, quick-service brands might be able to get away with this easier, given that average checks are lower, making it less noticeable. Lastly, even in cases where average checks are similar, consumers save on tips at quick service. To summarize, while the macro backdrop is difficult, I believe brands like Tim Hortons, McDonald's (MCD), Taco Bell (YUM), Domino's Pizza (PZZA), Burger King, Popeye's, Wingstop (WING), and several others should be able to weather the storm quite well, even if they index more towards less affluent consumers. Hence, if I wanted to be long the restaurant space, the safer area to go fishing is in these stocks vs. their casual dining peers, especially with valuations becoming more attractive for names like Domino's Pizza and Yum Brands. Wholesale Food Prices (National Restaurant Association, BLS) From a margin standpoint, one theme in Q2 was that applicant flow appears to be improving, which could help to pull down labor costs a little, given that there should be a reduction in overtime/bonus pay to properly staff restaurants. Meanwhile, from a commodity standpoint, costs remain high, but some brands appear confident that costs for some commodities have peaked. Carrols noted that labor and commodity costs appear to have stabilized at this higher level, while beef has begun declining: one of its highest input costs. Assuming this trend continues, beef costs should finish the year at $2.55/lb. to $2.60/lb., down from a peak of $2.90/lb., a major help from a profitability standpoint. To summarize, while some of the negativity surrounding the restaurant space makes sense, especially for casual dining, which could be hurt by trading down or simply eating at home, it's possible Q2 marked near the worst for quick-service given the combination of peaking commodity costs and traffic headwinds from higher gas prices. Therefore, while Carrols' stock has been killed, down 80% from its 2021 highs, the optimism in the prepared remarks makes sense, though a return to the highs for gas prices would certainly derail this view. Let's take a look at the valuation:
Analysis Article Sep 05

Is Carrols Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:TAST) Using Debt Sensibly?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Seeking Alpha Aug 10

Carrols Restaurant Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

Carrols Restaurant (NASDAQ:TAST) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Thursday, August 11th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.09 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $434.43M (+2.3% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, TAST has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward.
Seeking Alpha Jul 04

Carrols Restaurant Group: A High-Risk Bet On The Restaurant Space

Carrols Restaurant Group continues to be one of the worst-performing stocks in the restaurant industry, down more than 85% from its Q3 2018 highs. This sharp decline can be attributed to meaningful margin compression due to industry-wide headwinds and poor sentiment overall as reality sets in that pre-pandemic profitability levels could be ancient history. Fortunately, the company does benefit from two iconic brands and continues to outperform the US system from a same-restaurant-sales basis at Popeye's and Burger King. Still, while Carrols is dirt cheap at less than 2x P/EBITDA, I believe the far lower-risk bet on Burger King is Restaurant Brands, which also is cheap, pays investors to wait, and has a more diversified portfolio. It's been a tough two-year period for the restaurant group, and the worst could still be to come. This is because the industry has to lap the government stimulus boost from Q2 2021 in the upcoming quarter while discretionary budgets are pinched. However, we should finally see clearer sailing toward the end of the year as tough comps are lapped, assuming we don't see further industry-wide headwinds. One name hit harder than peers is Carrols Restaurant Group (TAST), and with TAST down 85% from its highs, some investors might be anxious to take a bite. However, while its valuation has improved, I still see far better bets elsewhere in the market. Carrol's Restaurant Group (Carrol's Restaurant Group) Just over six months ago, I wrote on Carrols Restaurant Group, noting that while the stock had significant upside potential if sentiment in the restaurant industry were to turn around, it was a much higher-risk way to buy the dip. This is because, as a franchisee, it was seeing a significant hit from commodity and wage inflation, and there didn't seem to be any end in sight to these trends, leading to a dip in margins. Since then, industry-wide headwinds have worsened, and staffing still remains well below pre-pandemic levels, with Carrols underperforming its peer group and suffering a 50% drawdown from my most recent article. Let's take a look and see whether this sharp correction has finally made it a name worth owning. Q1 Results Carrols released its Q1 results in May, reporting quarterly revenue of $399.5 million, a 2% increase from the year-ago period. This was driven by higher menu price increases and reduced promotional activity offset by a sharp ~7% decline in traffic in the period. However, it's important to note that while traffic trends were negative and same-store sales growth was low at Burger King, the 1.6% comp sales growth lapped difficult comps from the year-ago period (14.7%) and government stimulus despite headwinds from Omicron. Hence, the sales performance was satisfactory given the circumstances. Carrols - Quarterly Revenue (Company Filings, Author's Chart) Looking at Popeye's, same-store sales were up 2.2%, which lapped a relatively easy comp of 0.5% in the year-ago period. This was weaker than I had expected, but Carrols' stores outperformed Popeye's system (restaurants not run by Carrols) by 610 basis points, an impressive feat. The same was true for Burger King, which beat by 160 basis points, helped by growth in average check. The only negative was that most of this check growth was from menu pricing, which is obviously a less attractive way to grow average check, given that 7%-plus menu pricing per year is not sustainable. The good news is that given Burger King and Popeye's mix of value and convenience and the fact that they're trade-down options in a tougher macro environment, menu pricing may be high, but it's unlikely to lead to much of a shift in consumer behavior. Instead, I would be more worried about casual dining traffic trends, with dining out ranking low on value at most brands and potentially an easier cut in a period when discretionary budgets are shrinking. So, while there wasn't any reason to be elated with Carrols' Q1 results and the macro environment is concerning (weaker consumer), it's solidly positioned with two iconic brands benefiting from a trade-down effect, similar to Yum Brands (YUM) with KFC and Taco Bell. That said, while sales were up year-over-year and are projected to increase to 4% year-over-year, the margin performance has been more difficult to over look. In fact, adjusted EBITDA slid to $4.3 million in Q1 2022, down from $19.9 million in Q1 2021, and adjusted restaurant-level EBITDA margins dipped to 5.6% of restaurant sales vs. 10.1%. This led to another net loss in the period, with Carrols' net loss coming in at $7.2 million, continuing multiple consecutive years of negative annual earnings per share. Industry-Wide Headwinds As discussed in previous updates, the restaurant industry is battling a proverbial hurricane of headwinds, with new headwinds seemingly being thrown at operators each quarter. It began with traffic declines due to COVID-19, which impacted demand. This was followed by commodity and wage inflation which impacted margins, and just when sales had recovered, we've seen new headwinds to impact demand. These most recent ones are rising gas prices and rising mortgage payments, with gas prices hovering near $4.80/gallon and mortgage rates at multi-year highs. Neither are positive for restaurant traffic, with consumers' discretionary budgets shrinking. Wholesale Food Prices (National Restaurant Association, BLS) However, in the case of quick-service operators with strong brands, I expect the demand headwind to be more muted given the value and convenience proposition, especially in the summer months during a period of increased travel. This places Carrols in a better position than peers like Red Robin (RRGB), BJ's (BJRI) Restaurants, and Cracker Barrel (CBRL), which may need to resort to discounting to increase demand. Additionally, Carrols did note some green shoots, which were as follows: Beef prices are expected to moderate, and while its commodity basket was up 17% year-over-year, we may finally have some deceleration on the horizon in terms of wholesale food inflation. Applicant flow is triple what it was last year, and turnover levels are down from peak levels, suggesting that the labor situation may finally be improving after a terrible two years. Obviously, these are big "ifs." Plus, better recent labor stats aside, the restaurant industry is still 6% below its pre-pandemic peak employment levels. Still, if Carrols can see improved turnover rates, this would mean lower hiring/training costs and slightly lower labor costs, given that premium pay is being doled out to team members performing higher-level tasks. So, assuming this trend in turnover metrics is sustainable, assuming commodity inflation has peaked, and assuming demand doesn't pull back slightly due to a weaker consumer, we may have seen the worst from a margin standpoint for Carrols. These are too many "ifs" to rely on, and I certainly would not rely on them all coming to fruition immediately. Still, if a better 2023 is ahead and the industry is seeing sentiment at its worst levels in years, there's some reason to be optimistic about a potential bottom for Carrols. Having said that, while Carrols isn't expensive, I wouldn't argue there's a massive margin of safety here either. This suggests that there are safer bets out there than rushing into the stock above $2.10. Let's take a closer look at TAST's valuation below: Valuation As the chart below shows, Carrols has historically traded at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 16 (three-year average) and currently trades at 18x FY2023 EBITDA estimates, which is only a reasonable valuation if the company can put meaningfully grow annual EBITDA. This discount relative to names like Wingstop (WING) at ~24x EV/EBITDA is mostly due to Carrols' franchisee model vs. many other restaurant stocks with more franchised models, contributing to lower EBITDA margins for Carrols. Carrols Restaurant Group - Historical EBITDA Multiple (TIKR) Assuming Carrols can return to pre-pandemic EBITDA margin levels (~8.0%), the stock looks cheap, and the stock could see 45% upside to $3.05 per share. In my view, this is highly unlikely over the medium-term. In fact, given the industry-wide headwinds, a more conservative multiple might be 14x EBITDA. This still points to share price upside for Carrols if margins recover, but if I wanted to bet on a turnaround at Burger King US, I think the much safer way to play it is with Restaurant Brands International (QSR). My preference for owning Restaurant Brands International over Carrols is based on several points. The first is that RBI is a 100% franchised model with much higher unit growth, meaning that it's seen less impact on its earnings from commodity/wage inflation. Meanwhile, its unit growth outlook is helped by its recent acquisition of Firehouse Subs. This brand may make up a small portion of its system at ~4%), but it has considerable whitespace with just 1,200 restaurants, and is ranked No. 1 among food quality in the QSR sandwich category.
Analysis Article May 02

Is Carrols Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:TAST) Using Debt Sensibly?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Seeking Alpha Dec 22

Carrols Restaurant Group: High-Risk, High-Reward

Carrols Restaurant Group is one of the worst-performing restaurant stocks this year, down 53% vs. a 16% gain for the restaurant industry group. This significant underperformance can be attributed to rising costs that have put a dent in margins, with wages up 13% year-over-year in Q3, and commodity inflation coming in at 9.2%. At a share price of $2.90, much of this negativity looks priced in, with Carrols trading at one of its lowest revenue multiples in history, and close to 7x EV/EBITDA. However, Carrols remains a high-risk, high-reward bet in a market with several low-risk, high-reward bets, making it a much riskier way to buy the dip in the recent sector-wide correction.
Analysis Article Nov 01

Is Carrols Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:TAST) Using Too Much Debt?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...

Shareholder Returns

TASTUS HospitalityUS Market
7D0.1%-1.3%2.1%
1Y77.0%1.1%30.6%

Return vs Industry: TAST exceeded the US Hospitality industry which returned 21.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TAST exceeded the US Market which returned 27.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TAST's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TAST volatility
TAST Average Weekly Movement0.2%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement7.9%
Market Average Movement7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: TAST has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.

Volatility Over Time: TAST's weekly volatility has decreased from 8% to 0% over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
196014,000Deb Derbywww.carrols.com

Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates restaurants in the United States. It operates quick service restaurants as a franchisee under the Burger King and Popeyes brands in 23 Northeastern, Midwestern, Southcentral, and Southeastern states. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Syracuse, New York.

Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do Carrols Restaurant Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TAST fundamental statistics
Market capUS$478.64m
Earnings (TTM)US$29.41m
Revenue (TTM)US$1.88b
16.3x
P/E Ratio
0.3x
P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
TAST income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$1.88b
Cost of RevenueUS$1.55b
Gross ProfitUS$329.14m
Other ExpensesUS$299.73m
EarningsUS$29.41m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2024

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)0.59
Gross Margin17.47%
Net Profit Margin1.56%
Debt/Equity Ratio222.5%

How did TAST perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.8%
Current Dividend Yield
7%
Payout Ratio

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/05/15 11:37
End of Day Share Price 2024/05/15 00:00
Earnings2024/03/31
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. is covered by 9 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Andrew GadlinCJS Securities, Inc.
Jeremy HamblinCraig-Hallum Capital Group LLC
Brian MullanDeutsche Bank