| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 4/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 3/6 |
| Financial Health | 4/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
LOCO Stock Overview
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name.
Rewards
Price-To-Earnings ratio (13.4x) is below the US market (14.7x)
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for LOCO from our risk checks.
El Pollo Loco Holdings Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$9.91 |
| 52 Week High | US$19.25 |
| 52 Week Low | US$9.41 |
| Beta | 1.38 |
| 1 Month Change | -4.62% |
| 3 Month Change | -14.42% |
| 1 Year Change | -46.61% |
| 3 Year Change | -7.12% |
| 5 Year Change | -27.66% |
| Change since IPO | -58.76% |
Recent News & Updates
El Pollo Loco Holdings: Not As Tasty As You Think
At first glance, shares of El Pollo Loco Holdings look quite cheap on both an absolute basis and relative to similar restaurant chains. Revenue and earnings have continued to grow, but the company has not experienced any improvement in cash flows. This absence of growth likely makes the company worth less than it otherwise would be, with shares probably being more or less fairly valued now.
Shareholder Returns
| LOCO | US Hospitality | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -1.7% | -3.5% | -2.5% |
| 1Y | -46.6% | -32.1% | -21.2% |
Return vs Industry: LOCO underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -32.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: LOCO underperformed the US Market which returned -21.2% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| LOCO volatility | |
|---|---|
| LOCO Average Weekly Movement | 4.5% |
| Hospitality Industry Average Movement | 9.3% |
| Market Average Movement | 8.1% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.8% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.3% |
Stable Share Price: LOCO is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.
Volatility Over Time: LOCO's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 4,626 | Larry Roberts | https://www.elpolloloco.com |
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name. As of May 04, 2022, the company operated 480 restaurants comprising 189 company-operated and 291 franchised restaurants located in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Louisiana. It also licenses one restaurant in the Philippines.
El Pollo Loco Holdings Fundamentals Summary
| LOCO fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$364.22m |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$27.27m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$456.69m |
13.4x
P/E Ratio0.8x
P/S RatioIs LOCO overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| LOCO income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$456.69m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$361.35m |
| Gross Profit | US$95.34m |
| Other Expenses | US$68.07m |
| Earnings | US$27.27m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 0.74 |
| Gross Margin | 20.88% |
| Net Profit Margin | 5.97% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 12.7% |
How did LOCO perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonValuation
Is LOCO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LOCO?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is LOCO's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$364.22m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 10x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.7x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does LOCO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| LOCO PE Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 141.1x | ||
CHUY Chuy's Holdings | 13.5x | 10.7% | US$392.2m |
NATH Nathan's Famous | 17.7x | n/a | US$240.5m |
BJRI BJ's Restaurants | 520.4x | 72.0% | US$517.8m |
RUTH Ruth's Hospitality Group | 12.7x | 13.6% | US$552.3m |
LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings | 13.4x | 19.5% | US$364.2m |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the peer average (141.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does LOCO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (18x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is LOCO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 13.4x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 18x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of LOCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: LOCO ($9.91) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($6.43)
Significantly Below Fair Value: LOCO is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: LOCO is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.7x)
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Future Growth
How is El Pollo Loco Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?
Future Growth Score
2/6Future Growth Score 2/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
19.5%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: LOCO's forecast earnings growth (19.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: LOCO's earnings (19.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: LOCO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: LOCO's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.2% per year).
High Growth Revenue: LOCO's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if LOCO's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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Past Performance
How has El Pollo Loco Holdings performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
3/6Past Performance Score 3/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
28.1%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: LOCO has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: LOCO's current net profit margins (6%) are higher than last year (5.8%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: LOCO's earnings have grown significantly by 28.1% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: LOCO's earnings growth over the past year (9.8%) is below its 5-year average (28.1% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: LOCO earnings growth over the past year (9.8%) underperformed the Hospitality industry 119.6%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: LOCO's Return on Equity (8.6%) is considered low.
Discover strong past performing companies
Financial Health
How is El Pollo Loco Holdings's financial position?
Financial Health Score
4/6Financial Health Score 4/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: LOCO's short term assets ($46.5M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($71.0M).
Long Term Liabilities: LOCO's short term assets ($46.5M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($222.8M).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: LOCO's net debt to equity ratio (4.6%) is considered satisfactory.
Reducing Debt: LOCO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 37.3% to 12.7% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: LOCO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (106%).
Interest Coverage: LOCO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (24.2x coverage).
Balance Sheet
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Dividend
What is El Pollo Loco Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
0/6Dividend Score 0/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate LOCO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate LOCO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LOCO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LOCO's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as LOCO has not reported any payouts.
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Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
0.8yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Larry Roberts (62 yo)
0.75
Tenure
US$1,499,832
Compensation
Mr. Laurance Roberts, also known as Larry, has been President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. since March 9, 2022 and served as Interim Chief Financial Officer since Mar...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Larry's total compensation ($USD1.50M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.92M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Larry's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: LOCO's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.
Board Members
Experienced Board: LOCO's board of directors are considered experienced (6.3 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
- Ticker: LOCO
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 1975
- Industry: Restaurants
- Sector: Consumer Services
- Implied Market Cap: US$364.217m
- Shares outstanding: 36.75m
- Website: https://www.elpolloloco.com
Number of Employees
Location
- El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
- 3535 Harbor Boulevard
- Suite 100
- Costa Mesa
- California
- 92626
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/07/03 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/07/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/03/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/29 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.