El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:LOCO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$259.8m

El Pollo Loco Holdings Valuation

Is LOCO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LOCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LOCO ($8.33) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($5.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LOCO is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LOCO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

LOCO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.2x
PEG Ratio-1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LOCO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LOCO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average53.6x
NATH Nathan's Famous
14xn/aUS$265.3m
PBPB Potbelly
59.7x28.5%US$305.4m
GENK GEN Restaurant Group
122.5x114.2%US$298.0m
TAST Carrols Restaurant Group
18.2xn/aUS$495.3m
LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings
10.2x-8.4%US$259.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the peer average (53.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LOCO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.2%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.2%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (19.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LOCO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LOCO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.2x
Fair PE Ratio10.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LOCO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$8.33
US$10.50
+26.1%
4.8%US$11.00US$10.00n/a2
Apr ’25US$9.60
US$10.50
+9.4%
4.8%US$11.00US$10.00n/a2
Mar ’25US$9.17
US$10.50
+14.5%
4.8%US$11.00US$10.00n/a2
Feb ’25US$9.52
US$10.50
+10.3%
4.8%US$11.00US$10.00n/a2
Jan ’25US$8.82
US$10.50
+19.0%
4.8%US$11.00US$10.00n/a2
Dec ’24US$8.60
US$10.50
+22.1%
4.8%US$11.00US$10.00n/a2
Nov ’24US$8.55
US$11.50
+34.5%
4.3%US$12.00US$11.00n/a2
Oct ’24US$8.95
US$11.33
+26.6%
4.2%US$12.00US$11.00n/a3
Sep ’24US$9.59
US$11.33
+18.2%
4.2%US$12.00US$11.00n/a3
Aug ’24US$10.33
US$11.67
+12.9%
8.1%US$13.00US$11.00n/a3
Jul ’24US$8.77
US$11.67
+33.0%
8.1%US$13.00US$11.00n/a3
Jun ’24US$9.28
US$11.67
+25.7%
8.1%US$13.00US$11.00n/a3
May ’24US$10.02
US$12.17
+21.4%
13.6%US$14.50US$11.00n/a3
Apr ’24US$9.59
US$12.17
+26.9%
13.6%US$14.50US$11.00US$9.603
Mar ’24US$12.02
US$12.17
+1.2%
19.7%US$15.50US$10.00US$9.173
Feb ’24US$12.22
US$12.17
-0.4%
19.7%US$15.50US$10.00US$9.523
Jan ’24US$9.96
US$12.17
+22.2%
19.7%US$15.50US$10.00US$8.823
Dec ’23US$10.81
US$12.17
+12.6%
19.7%US$15.50US$10.00US$8.603
Nov ’23US$9.97
US$12.50
+25.4%
18.2%US$15.50US$10.00US$8.553
Oct ’23US$8.92
US$12.50
+40.1%
18.2%US$15.50US$10.00US$8.953
Sep ’23US$9.10
US$12.50
+37.4%
18.2%US$15.50US$10.00US$9.593
Aug ’23US$9.83
US$13.67
+39.0%
19.2%US$16.00US$10.00US$10.333
Jul ’23US$9.91
US$14.67
+48.0%
8.5%US$16.00US$13.00US$8.773
Jun ’23US$10.24
US$14.67
+43.2%
8.5%US$16.00US$13.00US$9.283
May ’23US$10.65
US$16.33
+53.4%
7.6%US$18.00US$15.00US$10.023
Apr ’23US$11.58
US$16.33
+41.0%
7.6%US$18.00US$15.00US$9.593

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.


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