Marriott International (MAR): Assessing the Stock’s True Value Following Major Debt Issuance and Financial Strategy Shift

If you own or follow Marriott International (MAR), the company’s big capital markets move this week is hard to ignore. Marriott just wrapped up a series of fixed-income offerings, bringing in over $1.4 billion by issuing senior unsecured notes across several maturities. Notably, the deal saw a shakeup among its underwriters, which suggests Marriott is actively reshaping financial relationships and securing more flexibility to support its strategic goals.

This activity unfolds against a backdrop of steady, sometimes impressive, share price movements. Over the past year, Marriott’s stock has delivered a 23% total return, outpacing many peers even as momentum has softened slightly in recent months. The company has also pursued ongoing global expansion, including a record pipeline in Asia-Pacific and new launches such as the Kuala Lumpur Executive Apartments and the groundbreaking of The Dunes in Fort Lauderdale. Some investors may view the company’s recent stock pullback or the mixed signals from its debt market activity as reasons to revisit their outlook.

After this period of steady, though recently less energetic, performance, is Marriott International now trading at an attractive valuation or has the market already factored in its next phase of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 2.2% Undervalued

According to the community narrative, Marriott International is viewed as slightly undervalued at current levels. The narrative highlights robust growth opportunities and the catalysts behind this analyst valuation.

Global expansion continues to accelerate, with net rooms growth approaching 5% and a record pipeline (over 590,000 rooms, 40% under construction). This reflects strong demand for Marriott's brands in international markets, particularly APAC and EMEA. In these regions, a rising middle class is driving double-digit RevPAR increases and provides a foundation for multi-year revenue growth.

Here is the real story behind Marriott's value call: analysts are betting on global expansion and the surging power of loyalty. But what aggressive forecasts, strategic moves, and future profit expectations really fuel this number? Curious about which bold projections and ambitious bottom-line targets could set the pace for years ahead? See what assumptions are causing all the excitement.

Result: Fair Value of $280.12 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent global uncertainty and softer demand in core markets could slow Marriott’s growth trajectory. This may challenge the optimistic outlook underpinning current valuations.

Find out about the key risks to this Marriott International narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Signals a Different Story

Looking from another angle, the SWS DCF model actually suggests Marriott might be overvalued based on future cash flows. This perspective challenges the earlier case for undervaluation. Which approach will prove more accurate over time?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Marriott International for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Marriott International Narrative

If these perspectives do not align with your view, or you want to dig deeper on your own, you can build a personal analysis in just a few minutes. You can also simply do it your way.

A great starting point for your Marriott International research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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