Assessing Marriott International (MAR) Valuation After Its Recent 17% Share Price Climb

Marriott International (MAR) has quietly pushed higher over the past month, adding roughly 17% as investors digest steady revenue and earnings growth in a still mixed global travel backdrop.

See our latest analysis for Marriott International.

That 16.9% 1 month share price return has added fresh momentum on top of a solid year to date climb. With a 3 year total shareholder return near doubling, investors are clearly still rewarding Marriott’s earnings consistency and perceived durability in travel demand.

If Marriott’s run has you thinking about where else growth and resilience might show up next, this could be a good time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet with shares now trading above analyst targets and at a premium to most valuation models, investors have to ask whether Marriott still offers upside from here, or if the market is already banking on years of future growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 4.4% Overvalued

Marriott’s narrative fair value of $291.92 sits just below the recent $304.65 close, setting up a tight debate around how much future growth is already priced in.

Diversification of high margin, luxury/lifestyle offerings and alternate revenue streams (e.g., branded residences, Marriott Media Network, co branded credit cards) leverages consumer preference for experiences over goods, expanding ADR and introducing new, capital light earnings streams for sustained earnings and margin growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see the math behind that premium story? The narrative quietly bakes in aggressive top line expansion, shifting margins, and a richer earnings multiple. Curious which numbers really move the fair value dial?

Result: Fair Value of $291.92 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upbeat story could unravel if macro softness drags on RevPAR growth or if heavy tech and labor costs squeeze margins harder than expected.

Find out about the key risks to this Marriott International narrative.

Build Your Own Marriott International Narrative

If you see the outlook differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom narrative in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Marriott International research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Do not stop with one opportunity. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover fresh stock ideas tailored to the way you like to invest.

• Tap into reliable income by scanning these 14 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that can help anchor your portfolio with steady cash returns.
• Ride powerful secular trends by targeting these 25 AI penny stocks positioned at the forefront of automation and intelligent software growth.
• Capture potential mispricings by narrowing in on these 935 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that the market may be underestimating today.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com