Expedia Group (EXPE): Reassessing Valuation After Strong Q3 Earnings Beat and Improving Growth Outlook

Expedia Group (EXPE) is back on investors radar after a stronger than expected third quarter, where earnings and demand outpaced forecasts and helped drive a 17.6% jump in the stock over the past month.

See our latest analysis for Expedia Group.

That surge has capped a strong run, with a roughly 16% 30 day share price return and a robust 1 year total shareholder return of about 62%, suggesting momentum is clearly building as investors reassess Expedia Group’s growth prospects and perceived risks.

If this travel rebound has you rethinking your watchlist, it could be a good moment to explore auto manufacturers as another way to spot where consumer demand is shifting next.

With earnings beating expectations, demand accelerating, and the stock already delivering outsized returns, is Expedia Group still trading at a discount to its intrinsic value, or are markets already pricing in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.7% Overvalued

With Expedia Group last closing at $282.82 against a narrative fair value of about $270, the current price sits slightly ahead of long run expectations.

Unified global technology platform and greater automation (including AI powered developer tools and personalized insurance products) are already producing faster feature delivery, improved customer experience, and reduced operating costs, which are expected to further expand EBITDA margins and benefit earnings over the next several years.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, rising margins, and a leaner share count can still justify a premium price tag? The full narrative unpacks the math, step by step.

Result: Fair Value of $270.24 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, execution is not risk free, with softer US travel demand and rising AI enabled competition both capable of pressuring growth assumptions that underpin today’s valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Expedia Group narrative.

Another Lens on Value

While consensus narratives see Expedia Group as about 4.7% overvalued versus a $270 fair value, our SWS DCF model paints a very different picture, suggesting intrinsic value closer to $519, or roughly 46% above today’s price. Is the market underestimating the cash flow story?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Expedia Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 913 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Expedia Group Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can craft a complete view in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Expedia Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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