Expedia Group (EXPE) Is Up 11.8% After Buyback, Raised Guidance and Dividend Announcement - What's Changed

• In recent days, Expedia Group announced the completion of a US$2.94 billion share buyback, reported its second quarter 2025 earnings, raised its full-year revenue guidance to 3%-5%, and declared a US$0.40 quarterly dividend payable in September 2025.
• An important takeaway is that Expedia has updated its annual revenue outlook, reflecting management's improved expectations and providing additional context for the company's latest financial results and capital allocation decisions.
• We'll explore how Expedia Group's raised revenue guidance may influence analysts' assumptions around its long-term growth drivers and valuation.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Expedia Group Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Expedia Group today, you need to believe in the ongoing global recovery of travel and the company's ability to maintain strong positions in digital and mobile travel bookings. While the recent share buyback and raised revenue outlook may reinforce confidence in near-term growth, the most important short-term catalyst, continued travel demand, remains subject to shifting consumer sentiment, and the biggest risk continues to be persistent softness in the U.S. travel market. These updates, while positive, don't materially alter that risk profile.

Among the latest announcements, Expedia's decision to complete a substantial US$2.94 billion share buyback stands out. This move directly impacts shareholder returns and signals management's ongoing capital allocation strategy at a time when investor attention is focused on catalysts like margin expansion and rising direct traffic; however, questions about sustained revenue growth in the competitive U.S. market remain front of mind for many investors.

In contrast, investors should be aware that any signs of a prolonged slowdown in U.S. travel demand could ...

Read the full narrative on Expedia Group (it's free!)

Expedia Group's outlook anticipates $16.8 billion in revenue and $2.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario is based on a 6.3% annual revenue growth rate and a $1.0 billion increase in earnings from the current $1.1 billion.

Uncover how Expedia Group's forecasts yield a $222.00 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members recently shared 9 independent fair value estimates for Expedia, stretching from US$132.67 up to US$416.27 per share. With ongoing questions around U.S. travel market resilience, you can see why opinions often differ on the company’s outlook, consider comparing multiple viewpoints before making up your mind.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Expedia Group - why the stock might be worth 37% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Expedia Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Expedia Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Expedia Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Expedia Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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