Churchill Downs (CHDN): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

Churchill Downs (CHDN) has been on investors’ radar recently, as shares have shifted modestly over the past week. With the stock down about 14% in the past 3 months, many are watching closely for signs of stabilization.

See our latest analysis for Churchill Downs.

While Churchill Downs has faced a challenging stretch as its share price slipped 14% over the last three months and sits 31.2% lower year-to-date, recent sessions have brought some relief with a 4.36% gain in the latest trading day. Overall, momentum has faded lately and the one-year total shareholder return tells the story, down 34% despite strong long-term fundamentals.

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With shares trading far below analyst targets and solid business growth in the background, the big question is whether Churchill Downs is now undervalued or if the market has already accounted for its future prospects. Could this be a real buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 34% Undervalued

With Churchill Downs' fair value set at $137.45, well above the recent closing price, analyst consensus paints a picture of potential upside despite recent share weakness. This sets the foundation for a narrative focused on strategic moves and growth levers that could reshape the company's future trajectory.

Strategic reinvestment in premium Kentucky Derby experiences and selective venue upgrades, particularly expanding Derby Week with new hospitality offerings, international marketing, prime-time Oaks coverage, and enhanced digital content, should drive substantial step-function revenue growth, higher per-attendee pricing, and stronger sponsorship income in 2026 and subsequent years, supporting higher adjusted EBITDA and net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s behind this bullish narrative? Surging digital engagement, bold venue investments, and upgraded guest experiences are part of the untold story. Curious which future financial assumptions fuel analysts’ optimism and why they see Churchill Downs trading at this elevated fair value? Find out what could truly unlock a higher price.

Result: Fair Value of $137.45 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued reliance on horse racing, along with evolving consumer preferences and rising costs, could challenge Churchill Downs’ long-term revenue and margin growth if left unaddressed.

Find out about the key risks to this Churchill Downs narrative.

Build Your Own Churchill Downs Narrative

If you have a different perspective or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, it only takes a few minutes to shape your own story. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Churchill Downs research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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