BJ's Restaurants, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJRI) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 3.7% to US$34.68. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$337m were what the analysts expected, BJ's Restaurants surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.32 per share, an impressive 111% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for BJ's Restaurants

Following last week's earnings report, BJ's Restaurants' nine analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.35b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 39% to US$1.42. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.36b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.29 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a decent improvement in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$38.33, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic BJ's Restaurants analyst has a price target of US$45.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$24.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BJ's Restaurants' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that BJ's Restaurants is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around BJ's Restaurants' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that BJ's Restaurants' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for BJ's Restaurants going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for BJ's Restaurants that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.