American Public Education, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Shareholders of American Public Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:APEI) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 18% to US$19.85 following its latest third-quarter results. Revenues were US$153m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.04, an impressive 300% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for American Public Education

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from American Public Education's four analysts is for revenues of US$647.8m in 2025. This would reflect a credible 5.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 153% to US$1.43. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$641.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.33 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target rose 25% to US$23.00, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values American Public Education at US$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the American Public Education's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that American Public Education's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than American Public Education.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around American Public Education's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that American Public Education's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for American Public Education going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for American Public Education that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.