Instacart (CART): Revisiting Valuation After Recent Outperformance and Flat Year-to-Date Share Price

Maplebear (CART) has quietly outperformed the broader market over the past month, climbing about 19%, even as its past 3 months remain slightly negative. That mix has investors revisiting Instacart’s underlying fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Maplebear.

Looking beyond the recent jump, Maplebear’s roughly flat year to date share price return but negative 1 year total shareholder return suggests momentum is only just starting to rebuild as investors reassess its growth and risk profile.

If Instacart’s recent move has you thinking about what else could be re rating, it might be worth exploring high growth tech and AI stocks as potential next wave beneficiaries.

With shares hovering near flat for the year despite solid revenue and profit growth, plus a double digit discount to analyst targets, is this still an underappreciated grocery tech platform, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of expansion?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 14.9% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting notably above the last close of $43.13, the story leans toward meaningful upside if its growth thesis holds.

Deepening enterprise partnerships and a growing suite of omnichannel retailer integrations (such as Storefront, Carrot Ads, Caper Carts, Carrot Tags) are increasing stickiness with major retail chains, creating new recurring revenue streams and driving higher margin, non transaction based revenues (e.g., advertising, in store tech). This development is making the business model less volatile and supporting sustainable margin expansion and earnings resilience.

Read the complete narrative.

To see the math behind this confidence boost, from mid single digit top line expansion to richer margins and a premium earnings multiple, review the full narrative for a detailed breakdown.

Result: Fair Value of $50.70 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising labor and regulatory pressures, alongside intensifying competition from retailer-led delivery, could compress margins and slow the expected earnings trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Maplebear narrative.

Another Take On Valuation

On simple earnings metrics, the picture flips. Maplebear trades on a 22.4x P/E, richer than both the US consumer retailing industry at 20.7x and peers at 19.4x. This is also above a fair ratio of 18x, suggesting investors may be paying up today for execution risk.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Maplebear Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Maplebear.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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