V.F (VFC): Has the Recent Share Price Rebound Left the Stock Overvalued?

V.F (VFC) has been quietly climbing, with the stock up roughly 29% over the past month and 31% in the past 3 months, even as its longer term returns remain weak.

See our latest analysis for V.F.

Even after this short term rally, with the share price at $19.27, V.F still has a negative year to date share price return and a deeply negative five year total shareholder return. As a result, the recent momentum looks more like an early sentiment shift than a full comeback.

If V.F’s rebound has you reassessing the market, it could be a good moment to look beyond apparel and explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

That sets up the key question for investors: with modest revenue growth, a sharp profit rebound, and the share price still far below five year highs, is V.F undervalued, or is the market already pricing in a full recovery?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 20.1% Overvalued

With V.F closing at $19.27 against a most popular narrative fair value of about $16.05, the storyline points to stretched optimism in the current price.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.19 for V.F based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how modest growth, rising margins and a lower future earnings multiple still justify that fair value? The narrative’s math may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $16.05 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent Vans weakness and tariff headwinds could derail the margin recovery, forcing analysts to rethink both earnings power and valuation multiples.

Find out about the key risks to this V.F narrative.

Another Lens on Value

While the most popular narrative flags V.F as about 20% overvalued versus a $16.05 fair value, our DCF model actually sees the shares as trading roughly 7% below intrinsic value, at around $20.73. Is the market underestimating the cash flow rebound, or is the narrative too cautious?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out V.F for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 912 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own V.F Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer to dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a complete narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your V.F research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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