Stock Analysis

NVR (NYSE:NVR) jumps 5.1% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind three-year shareholder returns

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The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But if you buy shares in a really great company, you can more than double your money. To wit, the NVR, Inc. (NYSE:NVR) share price has flown 136% in the last three years. Most would be happy with that. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 14% gain in the last three months.

Since it's been a strong week for NVR shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for NVR

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

NVR was able to grow its EPS at 30% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. We note that the 33% yearly (average) share price gain isn't too far from the EPS growth rate. Coincidence? Probably not. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Quite to the contrary, the share price has arguably reflected the EPS growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:NVR Earnings Per Share Growth March 18th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that NVR has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 10% in the last twelve months. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 13% a year, is even better. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand NVR better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for NVR you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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Find out whether NVR is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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