Nike’s ‘Win Now’ Gains and North American Growth Might Change the Case for Investing in NKE

• NIKE, Inc. recently reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, posting sales of US$11.72 billion and net income of US$727 million, with basic and diluted earnings per share of US$0.49, all compared to higher figures a year ago.
• Despite ongoing margin and earnings pressures, Nike exceeded analyst expectations for both revenue and profit, driven by growth in North America and its running and wholesale categories as the company executes elements of its 'Win Now' turnaround plan.
• We'll explore how strong North American performance and progress in Nike's 'Win Now' plan influence the investment narrative going forward.

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NIKE Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Nike shareholder today, you have to believe in the 'Win Now' turnaround strategy restoring sustained growth through innovation in running and wholesale, while managing profit margins amid cost and sales pressures. The Q1 results reinforced North America and performance product momentum, but weaker earnings and ongoing margin compression mean margin recovery is still the most important near-term catalyst, while persistent cost headwinds and regional challenges, especially in Greater China, remain the main risk. Based on the latest quarterly update, the overall impact on this risk-catalyst balance is material; signs of progress are visible, but not conclusive.

Among Nike’s recent announcements, the completion of another US$123 million share buyback is particularly relevant. This move highlights management’s continued return of capital to shareholders even as earnings and margins face headwinds, a supportive gesture, but one that does not offset the fundamental need for improvement in underlying profitability to drive long-term returns.

However, it’s crucial for investors to know that underneath this operational resilience, pressure from new tariffs and cost increases could linger for...

Read the full narrative on NIKE (it's free!)

NIKE's narrative projects $50.7 billion revenue and $4.4 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 3.1% yearly revenue growth and a $1.2 billion increase in earnings from $3.2 billion today.

Uncover how NIKE's forecasts yield a $82.25 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members shared 49 fair value estimates for Nike stock, ranging from US$55 to US$96.60 per share. While opinions on value differ, recent margin challenges and tariff-related risks continue to weigh on the company's future outlook, so it’s important to consider a range of perspectives before making decisions.

Explore 49 other fair value estimates on NIKE - why the stock might be worth as much as 34% more than the current price!

Build Your Own NIKE Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your NIKE research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free NIKE research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate NIKE's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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