Why Movado Group, Inc. (NYSE:MOV) Could Be Worth Watching

While Movado Group, Inc. (NYSE:MOV) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NYSE over the last few months. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Movado Group’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Movado Group

What's The Opportunity In Movado Group?

The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 7.47x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 9.95x, which means if you buy Movado Group today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe Movado Group should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Movado Group’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from Movado Group?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Movado Group, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -0.7%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? MOV seems priced close to industry peers right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on MOV, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on MOV for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystallize your views on MOV should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Movado Group at this point in time. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Movado Group you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Movado Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.