Stock Analysis

Strong week for Topgolf Callaway Brands (NYSE:MODG) shareholders doesn't alleviate pain of three-year loss

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NYSE:MODG
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In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. We regret to report that long term Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (NYSE:MODG) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 45% in three years, versus a market return of about 18%. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 43% in a year. Furthermore, it's down 23% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$76m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Topgolf Callaway Brands

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Topgolf Callaway Brands became profitable within the last five years. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.

Revenue is actually up 32% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Topgolf Callaway Brands more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:MODG Earnings and Revenue Growth December 8th 2023

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Topgolf Callaway Brands

A Different Perspective

Topgolf Callaway Brands shareholders are down 43% for the year, but the market itself is up 17%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Topgolf Callaway Brands (including 1 which is concerning) .

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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