Did Birkenstock's Upgraded 2025 Revenue Outlook Just Shift BIRK’s Investment Narrative?

• In late September 2025, Birkenstock Holding plc raised its full-year fiscal 2025 earnings guidance, forecasting at least €2.09 billion in revenues, with a projected reported growth of 15.9% and 17.5% growth in constant currency.
• This update also included a strong outlook for the fourth quarter, reflecting management’s confidence in demand resilience across key markets and ongoing expansion efforts.
• We'll explore how Birkenstock’s upgraded revenue projections for 2025 may influence analyst expectations and future growth assumptions.

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Birkenstock Holding Investment Narrative Recap

To own Birkenstock Holding stock, you need conviction in the brand’s ability to expand beyond its core sandals, maintain strong global demand, and manage wholesale versus direct-to-consumer channels effectively. The September 2025 upward revision to full-year revenue guidance reinforces Birkenstock’s short-term growth momentum, but does not meaningfully diminish the biggest risk: supply constraints that could cap its ability to meet mounting demand, especially across EMEA and APAC regions.

Among recent company announcements, the completion of a significant share buyback in May 2025 stands out. This move can complement Birkenstock’s efforts to drive shareholder value, in parallel with the heightened revenue outlook, but does not directly influence the biggest underlying challenge: efficiently scaling production and logistics to match rising expectations.

However, investors should also be alert to the potential for capacity constraints to...

Read the full narrative on Birkenstock Holding (it's free!)

Birkenstock Holding's outlook projects €3.1 billion in revenue and €555.6 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 14.8% annual revenue growth and a €248.7 million increase in earnings from the current level of €306.9 million.

Uncover how Birkenstock Holding's forecasts yield a $69.17 fair value, a 50% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members set Birkenstock’s fair value between €56.69 and €69.17 across four forecasts. While views differ, many now focus on whether the company’s expanded revenue outlook can be fully realized if production and supply chain pressures remain.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Birkenstock Holding - why the stock might be worth as much as 50% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Birkenstock Holding Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Birkenstock Holding research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Birkenstock Holding research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Birkenstock Holding's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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