Latham Group Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Latham Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 38.5% and 6.8% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 47.1% per annum.
Key information
38.5%
Earnings growth rate
47.15%
EPS growth rate
| Leisure earnings growth | 37.7% |
| Revenue growth rate | 6.8% |
| Future return on equity | n/a |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 07 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 30
SWIM: Higher Discount Rate And Lower P/E Assumptions Will Restrain Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed the fair value estimate for Latham Group from $6.25 to $5.00. This move reflects recent price target cuts from several firms as they factor in updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Apr 16
SWIM: Lean Manufacturing Progress Will Support Future Margin Strength And Upside
Analysts have nudged the price target on Latham Group higher to $8.50 from $7.89, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margin outlook, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple that aligns with recent Street research, which argues the fiscal 2026 margin plan is tracking ahead of prior expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Latham Group points to a mixed but constructive setup, with some analysts lifting their price targets on the back of updated guidance and margin plans, while others trim expectations at the margin.
Narrative Update • Apr 02
SWIM: Lean Manufacturing And 2026 Margin Expansion Will Support Bullish Repricing
Analysts have raised their blended price target for Latham Group by a modest amount to $12.86 from $12.76, citing stronger recent results, slightly firmer guidance, and expectations for ongoing margin gains supported by lean manufacturing and value engineering efforts. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are leaning into a more constructive view on Latham Group after the latest quarterly update, pointing to recent execution and guidance as key supports for their revised assumptions.Narrative Update • Mar 19
SWIM: Margin Initiatives And Product Updates Will Shape A Balanced Equity Outlook
Analysts have lifted the price target range for Latham Group to between $8 and $9.50, with the updated fair value estimate moving from $6.00 to $6.25. They highlight stronger recent results, guidance that modestly exceeded prior expectations, and an outlook for EBITDA margin expansion supported by lean manufacturing and value engineering efforts.Narrative Update • Mar 05
SWIM: Lean Manufacturing And 2026 Margin Expansion Will Drive Bullish Thesis
Analysts have lifted their aggregate price target range for Latham Group by roughly $1 to $2 per share, with recent moves to $9.50 and $8. This reflects stronger Q4 results, guidance that modestly topped expectations, and an outlook for 2026 that points to ongoing EBITDA margin expansion supported by lean manufacturing and value engineering efforts.Narrative Update • Feb 18
SWIM: Lower Multiple And CEO Transition Will Pressure Future Equity Story
Analysts trimmed their price target on Latham Group by $1, reflecting updated views on its discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts cutting their price targets on Latham Group by $1 are flagging a more cautious stance on how much risk they are willing to underwrite in the current equity story.Seeking Alpha • Feb 16
It's Tempting To Take A Dip Into Shares Of Latham Group (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Latham Group, the largest inground residential pool producer in North America, is upgraded to a soft ‘buy’ due to improved valuation and growth prospects. Q3 2025 revenue rose 7.6% year-over-year, with gross margin expanding to 35.4% on production efficiencies and value engineering initiatives. Management guides FY25 revenue to $540-$550 million and EBITDA to $92-$98 million, indicating solid operational momentum. SWIM trades at a notable discount to peers, offering potential upside of 19.5%–100.8% if valuation multiples converge, despite macroeconomic risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Feb 04
SWIM: CEO Transition And Execution Risks Will Shape Balanced Near Term Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Latham Group by about US$1, reflecting slightly adjusted assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, while keeping fair value unchanged at US$6.00. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have framed the US$1 price target trim as a recalibration of expectations rather than a fundamental change to their longer term framework.Analysis Article • Feb 01
Investors Could Be Concerned With Latham Group's (NASDAQ:SWIM) Returns On Capital
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Ideally, a business will show two...Narrative Update • Jan 20
SWIM: Tepid Construction And Execution Risks Will Limit Margin Upside Potential
Narrative update Analysts have nudged their price target on Latham Group slightly lower by $1, reflecting updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples after recent research that balanced Barclays' more cautious stance with Stifel's increased confidence in market share gains and margin potential. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Latham Group shows a split view, with some analysts more optimistic on market share and margins while others are trimming expectations and staying cautious on execution and end market trends.Analysis Article • Jan 14
Investors Aren't Entirely Convinced By Latham Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SWIM) Revenues
It's not a stretch to say that Latham Group, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:SWIM ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.5x right now...Narrative Update • Jan 05
SWIM: Market Share Gains Will Support Future Margin Strength And Upside
Narrative Update Analysts have lifted their price target on Latham Group to US$8.75 from US$8.00, citing greater confidence in the company’s ability to gain market share across all segments while supporting a stronger margin profile, even as new pool construction remains tepid. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on Latham Group centers on how the company might perform if new pool construction stays soft, and whether its current execution can support the higher US$8.75 price target.Narrative Update • Dec 22
SWIM: Margin Outlook And Leadership Transition Will Shape Measured Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price target on Latham Group higher to approximately $8.75, up from about $8.00, citing growing confidence in the company’s ability to gain market share and deliver a stronger margin profile despite a sluggish new construction backdrop. Analyst Commentary While the latest price target increase reflects renewed optimism around Latham Group’s market share trajectory and margin improvement, not all market observers share an unequivocally positive view.Narrative Update • Dec 08
SWIM: Future Margin Expansion Will Drive Upside Despite Softer Construction Demand
Analysts have raised their price target on Latham Group to $8.75 from $8.00, citing growing confidence in the company's ability to gain market share and deliver a stronger margin profile despite a softer new construction backdrop. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that the higher price target reflects growing conviction in Latham Group's ability to execute on its market share strategy, even as broader pool construction demand moderates.Analysis Article • Nov 26
Estimating The Fair Value Of Latham Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SWIM)
Key Insights Latham Group's estimated fair value is US$7.49 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With US$7.10...Analysis Article • Nov 08
Earnings Miss: Latham Group, Inc. Missed EPS By 30% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Latham Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SWIM ), given that the company fell short...Narrative Update • Nov 07
SWIM: Market Share Gains And Rising Margins Will Drive Future Opportunity
Analysts have raised their price target for Latham Group from $8.00 to $8.75, citing improved confidence in the company's margin profile and ability to gain market share, even with a slow new construction environment. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary from bullish analysts highlights both positive developments and key areas of caution regarding Latham Group's outlook.Analysis Article • Oct 25
Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Latham Group (NASDAQ:SWIM)
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. One common...Analysis Article • Jul 13
Investors Aren't Entirely Convinced By Latham Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SWIM) Revenues
It's not a stretch to say that Latham Group, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:SWIM ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.5x right now...Analysis Article • Jun 25
We Think Latham Group (NASDAQ:SWIM) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Analysis Article • May 05
The Returns On Capital At Latham Group (NASDAQ:SWIM) Don't Inspire Confidence
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Analysis Article • Apr 08
Market Cool On Latham Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SWIM) Revenues Pushing Shares 28% Lower
Latham Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SWIM ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough...Seeking Alpha • Mar 05
Latham Group: A Pool Of Potential, But Too Many Red Flags For Now
Summary Latham Group, Inc. faces valuation concerns despite growth in the fiberglass pool market, with declining revenue and profitability struggles in Q4 2024. Expansion in the Sand States shows promise, but competition from concrete pool builders and market adoption challenges persist. Tariffs, supply chain issues, and cash flow pressures complicate Latham's financial outlook, raising questions about sustainable growth. Given these factors, I rate SWIM stock a sell due to near-term risks outweighing long-term growth prospects. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 28
Is Latham Group (NASDAQ:SWIM) A Risky Investment?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...Analysis Article • Jan 28
Latham Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SWIM) Price In Tune With Revenues
When you see that almost half of the companies in the Leisure industry in the United States have price-to-sales ratios...Analysis Article • Jan 03
Does This Valuation Of Latham Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SWIM) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?
Key Insights Latham Group's estimated fair value is US$4.84 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...Analysis Article • Dec 10
Is Now The Time To Look At Buying Latham Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SWIM)?
Latham Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SWIM ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a significant share price rise of...Seeking Alpha • Nov 18
Latham Group: The Water Is Getting Warmer
Summary Latham Group's stock has appreciated 12.1% since August, but new data and revised guidance suggest it's now fairly valued, leading me to downgrade it to a 'hold'. Recent financial results show a 6.4% revenue decline due to lower sales volumes and a challenging macroeconomic environment, despite cost-cutting efforts. Management has reduced revenue guidance for the fiscal year, reflecting continued industry weakness and economic challenges impacting consumer spending on swimming pools. Despite being relatively attractive compared to competitors, the stock's increased valuation and economic uncertainties justify a more cautious 'hold' rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 18
Latham Group: End Of A Nightmare
Summary Latham Group is poised for significant earnings growth, driven by increasing fiberglass pool penetration and ancillary product expansion over the next 5 years. Fiberglass pools are gaining market share due to lower maintenance costs, faster installation, and superior design compared to concrete and vinyl pools. Despite recent industry downturns, Latham's market position and expected recovery in new pool starts suggest a potential 600% return, targeting a $50 stock price by 2029. We started buying Latham shares at $2.50, with a 5-year price target of $50, anticipating a 4x increase in adjusted EBITDA. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Oct 14
Latham Group (NASDAQ:SWIM) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Sep 14
Is Latham Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SWIM) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value
Key Insights The projected fair value for Latham Group is US$4.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...Analysis Article • Aug 25
Latham Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SWIM) 85% Jump Shows Its Popularity With Investors
Latham Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SWIM ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 85% share price jump in the...
New Narrative • Aug 21
Pool Industry Woes Meet Hope In Innovation And Critical Acquisitions
Forecasted decline in new pool starts poses risks to future revenue, amidst efforts to improve profitability through restructuring and cost management.Analysis Article • Aug 14
Latham Group's (NASDAQ:SWIM) Shareholders May Want To Dig Deeper Than Statutory Profit
Following the solid earnings report from Latham Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SWIM ), the market responded by bidding up the...Seeking Alpha • Aug 08
Latham Group: It Might Be Time To Dip Your Toes In
Summary Latham Group, Inc., a residential swimming pool company, saw a 41.5% surge in shares after strong Q2 financial results and increased guidance for 2024. Despite revenue declines, the company showed improvement in net income, operating cash flow, and EBITDA in the second quarter of 2024. Management's acquisition of Coverstar Central is expected to boost Latham Group's EBITDA margin and contribute positively to the company's growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 665 | 24 | 54 | N/A | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 629 | 23 | 43 | N/A | 7 |
| 12/31/2026 | 591 | 13 | 14 | N/A | 7 |
| 3/28/2026 | 552 | 9 | 30 | 63 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 546 | 11 | 38 | 63 | N/A |
| 9/27/2025 | 533 | -11 | 24 | 46 | N/A |
| 6/28/2025 | 522 | -13 | 12 | 32 | N/A |
| 3/29/2025 | 509 | -16 | 31 | 49 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 509 | -18 | 41 | 61 | N/A |
| 9/28/2024 | 512 | 11 | 65 | 83 | N/A |
| 6/29/2024 | 522 | 12 | 78 | 98 | N/A |
| 3/30/2024 | 539 | 4 | 68 | 96 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 566 | -2 | 83 | 116 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 584 | -22 | 76 | 115 | N/A |
| 7/1/2023 | 612 | -16 | 37 | 84 | N/A |
| 4/1/2023 | 642 | -17 | 32 | 75 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 696 | -6 | -7 | 32 | N/A |
| 10/1/2022 | 727 | 7 | -25 | 10 | N/A |
| 7/2/2022 | 699 | -16 | -24 | 4 | N/A |
| 4/2/2022 | 673 | -74 | -10 | 17 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 630 | -62 | 9 | 34 | N/A |
| 10/2/2021 | 604 | -59 | 12 | 38 | N/A |
| 7/3/2021 | 569 | -30 | 44 | 67 | N/A |
| 4/3/2021 | 501 | 40 | 30 | 48 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 403 | 16 | 47 | 63 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 318 | 7 | N/A | 36 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: SWIM's forecast earnings growth (38.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: SWIM's earnings (38.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: SWIM's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: SWIM's revenue (6.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: SWIM's revenue (6.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if SWIM's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
Discover growth companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/13 12:36 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/13 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Latham Group, Inc. is covered by 12 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Timothy Wojs | Baird |
| Matthew Bouley | Barclays |
| Shaun Calnan | BofA Global Research |