Earnings Miss: Latham Group, Inc. Missed EPS By 30% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Latham Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SWIM), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$162m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 30%, coming in at just US$0.07 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Latham Group's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$573.3m in 2026. This would be a reasonable 7.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Latham Group forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.13 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$575.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.11 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a solid gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

View our latest analysis for Latham Group

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$7.93, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Latham Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$10.00 and the most bearish at US$6.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Latham Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 6.0% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 2.2% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.8% per year. Not only are Latham Group's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Latham Group's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.93, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Latham Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Latham Group's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.