TransUnion (TRU): Evaluating Valuation After Its Enhanced Device Risk Fraud-Detection Upgrade

TransUnion (TRU) just rolled out a major upgrade to its Device Risk fraud platform, leaning heavily into adaptive machine learning and cross session device identification at a time when fraud is quietly eroding corporate margins.

See our latest analysis for TransUnion.

The latest Device Risk upgrade lands at an interesting moment, with TransUnion’s share price at $84.75 after a 1 month share price return of 5.71% but a weaker year to date share price return of 7.73%. At the same time, the 3 year total shareholder return of 54.28% still suggests the long term fraud and data narrative is intact even if momentum has cooled recently.

If this fraud focused story has your attention, it is also worth exploring how other data rich innovators are priced by checking out high growth tech and AI stocks for fresh ideas beyond TransUnion.

With revenue and earnings still growing and the stock trading at a material discount to analyst and intrinsic value estimates, is TransUnion quietly setting up a compelling entry point? Or is the market already baking in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 21% Undervalued

With TransUnion last closing at $84.75 versus a narrative fair value of $107.25, the most widely followed view sees meaningful upside driven by earnings power.

With technology modernization and operational transformation investments ending in 2025, management projects free cash flow conversion to rise significantly (from 70% in 2025 to 90%+ in 2026), providing a catalyst for future shareholder returns through buybacks, acquisitions, or reinvestment, and supporting a step-change in long-term earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see the math behind that optimism? This narrative leans on accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious how those pieces fit together into a double digit upside story?

Result: Fair Value of $107.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, accelerated regulatory crackdowns or a serious cyber incident could quickly compress margins, unsettle lenders, and force a rethink of those upside assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this TransUnion narrative.

Another Lens On Valuation

While the narrative and analyst targets point to upside, the earnings ratio tells a cooler story. TransUnion trades on 39.1 times earnings versus 24.6 times for the US Professional Services industry, 35.1 times for peers, and a fair ratio of 32.4 times. This hints at valuation risk if growth stumbles.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own TransUnion Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your TransUnion research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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