TransUnion (TRU): Evaluating Valuation After Earnings Beat, Upgraded Guidance, and New Buyback Program

TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) shares advanced after the company delivered third-quarter earnings that surpassed expectations and raised its outlook for both revenue and earnings per share for the full year. The company’s organic revenue growth and expanded share buyback program reinforced confidence in its business momentum.

See our latest analysis for TransUnion.

TransUnion’s upbeat earnings, new mortgage credit and analytics product rollouts, and increased share repurchases sparked real excitement among investors this week. Still, even after a recent jump, the stock’s year-to-date share price return sits at -6.8%, and its one-year total return is -16.95%. Looking longer term, though, momentum improves, with a three-year total shareholder return of 46%. Recent news points to building momentum as the company leans into new product innovation and guides for stronger growth ahead.

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Yet with shares still lagging over the past year despite improved results and upbeat guidance, the big question is whether the recent rally leaves the stock undervalued, or if the market has already priced in TransUnion’s growth recovery. Could this be the right moment to buy, or is future upside already baked in?

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued

With TransUnion closing at $85.60 and the narrative’s fair value set at $107, there is a sizable gap opening up between market price and the consensus expectation. Optimism is building around the company’s transformation strategy and higher-margin product lines, which underpin the current valuation narrative.

Strategic innovation investments such as AI, machine learning, and the roll-out of the global cloud-native OneTru platform are driving efficiency, faster product launches, better cross-sell opportunities, and improved customer retention. These factors position TransUnion to grow earnings with higher operating leverage and net margins as technology transformation costs subside after 2025.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the key drivers behind this bullish price target? The story hinges on a bold roadmap for both earnings and revenue growth. The narrative is built around ambitious profit margin goals and a future valuation multiple typical of industry leaders. What's the true engine behind TransUnion's next big move? See the full breakdown to find out what analysts are really betting on.

Result: Fair Value of $107 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, regulatory shifts and growing competition from both traditional and fintech players could challenge TransUnion's growth story and test its improving margin outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this TransUnion narrative.

Another View: Looking at Valuation Ratios

While the consensus narrative highlights major upside, TransUnion’s current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 39.5x, which is far above both the industry average (26.5x) and its own fair ratio of 34x. This signals investors are paying a premium versus competitors, which could limit near-term upside if growth optimism fades. If the market adjusts to these benchmarks, could that spell greater valuation risk than the bullish narrative suggests?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own TransUnion Narrative

If you’re eager to dig into the data and shape your own view, you can build a personalized TransUnion narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your TransUnion research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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