FTI Consulting (FCN): Rethinking Valuation After a Year of Negative Returns and Softer Share Price Momentum

FTI Consulting (FCN) has been drifting slightly lower this year, and that softer share price is catching investors attention. With steady revenue and earnings growth, the stock now raises a straightforward value question.

See our latest analysis for FTI Consulting.

At around $164.43 per share, FTI Consulting’s year to date share price return of minus 13.38 percent and one year total shareholder return of minus 19.66 percent suggest momentum has cooled, even though the five year total shareholder return of 52.39 percent still points to a solid long term compounding story.

If this shift in sentiment has you rethinking your opportunity set, it could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential fresh ideas beyond the consulting space.

With earnings still rising and the share price under pressure, investors now face a key question: does the current valuation underestimate FTI Consulting’s long term prospects, or is the market already pricing in the growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 1% Undervalued

With FTI Consulting last closing at $164.43 against a narrative fair value of $166, the valuation gap is narrow but grounded in detailed forecasts.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $358.3 million (and earnings per share of $11.05) by about September 2028, up from $249.7 million today. In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.9x on those 2028 earnings, down from 21.3x today.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how mid single digit growth, fatter margins, and a lower future earnings multiple can still argue for upside from here? Unlock the full narrative math.

Result: Fair Value of $166 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shifts in regulation and rapid advances in automation could temper demand in key practices and pressure the profitability assumptions underpinning this narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this FTI Consulting narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

On simple earnings metrics, FTI Consulting looks inexpensive, trading on a 18.7 times price earnings ratio versus 24.2 times for the US Professional Services industry and 41.1 times for peers. Our fair ratio of 23.7 times suggests room for re rating if sentiment turns, or a value trap if growth disappoints.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out FTI Consulting for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 932 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own FTI Consulting Narrative

If you see things differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can quickly build a custom narrative from scratch in just minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding FTI Consulting.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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