CoreCivic, Inc.'s (NYSE:CXW) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 27% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for CoreCivic is US$17.89 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• CoreCivic is estimated to be 21% undervalued based on current share price of US$14.12
• The US$15.50 analyst price target for CXW is 13% less than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for CoreCivic

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$114.4m	US$119.7m	US$124.4m	US$128.6m	US$132.5m	US$136.2m	US$139.8m	US$143.3m	US$146.8m	US$150.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 5.65%	Est @ 4.62%	Est @ 3.90%	Est @ 3.40%	Est @ 3.04%	Est @ 2.80%	Est @ 2.62%	Est @ 2.50%	Est @ 2.42%	Est @ 2.36%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2%	US$106	US$102	US$98.1	US$93.8	US$89.3	US$84.8	US$80.4	US$76.2	US$72.1	US$68.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$871m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$150m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.2%) = US$2.6b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$2.6b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)¹⁰= US$1.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.0b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$14.1, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 21% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at CoreCivic as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.200. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for CoreCivic

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For CoreCivic, there are three further items you should look at:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for CoreCivic (1 is a bit concerning!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for CXW's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.