If you are eyeing Verisk Analytics and wondering whether it is time to buy, hold, or move on, you are not alone. Investors keeping tabs on this analytics specialist have seen a bit of a roller coaster lately. Short-term moves have been modest, up just 0.1% in the last week, while over the past month, shares have retreated by nearly 8%. This recent drop follows ongoing adjustments in the market’s view of risk for data-heavy companies like Verisk, as shifting interest rates and a flight to quality stocks have kept volatility alive. Still, the longer-term picture offers some comfort, with a solid 49.5% climb over the last three years and a 33.3% gain for those with patience over five years.
Even with these ups and downs, many investors want to know if Verisk’s current share price makes sense. The company’s value score, based on six common ways analysts check for undervaluation, comes in at a 1. That means Verisk is flagged as undervalued in just one of those six checks, which could suggest the stock is closer to fairly priced, or perhaps even heated up by past optimism. The real challenge is figuring out if these numbers tell the whole story.
Next up, we will walk through the main valuation approaches that analysts use and see how Verisk stacks up. And stick around, at the end we will talk about an even better method for understanding what the company might truly be worth.
Verisk Analytics scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: Verisk Analytics Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a stock's true value by projecting how much cash a company will generate in the future and then discounting those amounts back to today's dollars. This approach aims to cut through short-term noise by focusing on long-term free cash flow potential.
For Verisk Analytics, analysts estimate the company's latest twelve-month free cash flow at $986.6 million, positioning it just under the billion-dollar mark. Future projections anticipate steady growth, with free cash flow expected to reach $1.13 billion in 2026 and $1.22 billion in 2027. Extending the view out to 2035 using analyst estimates and industry assumptions, the model forecasts just below $1.7 billion in annual free cash flow by that point.
By summing and discounting all these projected cash flows back to today using a two-stage DCF approach, the analysis produces an intrinsic value of $223.17 per share. With the current share price sitting 11.6% above that figure, the model suggests Verisk’s stock is slightly overvalued at the moment.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Verisk Analytics may be overvalued by 11.6%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
Approach 2: Verisk Analytics Price vs Earnings (PE Ratio)
The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used valuation metric for profitable companies, as it compares a stock's price to its bottom-line earnings per share. This makes it especially useful for businesses like Verisk Analytics, which consistently generate profits and can be measured on how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar of earnings.
However, what counts as a "normal" PE ratio depends on several factors. Higher growth expectations, lower risk, or robust profitability can justify a higher PE. On the other hand, cyclical risks or stagnant earnings may warrant a lower multiple. With Verisk’s current PE ratio standing at 38.27x, it is trading at a premium compared to both the industry average of 26.79x and the peer group average of 36.62x. This suggests that investors might be expecting superior growth or lower risk compared to its professional services peers.
Simply Wall St introduces the “Fair Ratio,” a bespoke yardstick that reflects what Verisk’s PE should be based on its specific growth, profitability, business risks, industry dynamics, and company size. This is more insightful than a pure peer or industry comparison because it tailors expectations to the unique profile of the business. In Verisk’s case, the Fair Ratio is estimated at 29.89x, noticeably lower than its actual PE. This means that, after accounting for all known factors, Verisk is currently priced above what its earnings and outlook would suggest is justified.
Result: OVERVALUED
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Verisk Analytics Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there's an even better way to understand valuation. Let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple, powerful tool that lets you outline the story behind your view on a company by connecting your assumptions about Verisk’s future revenue, profit margins, and business trends to a fair value estimate for the stock.
Narratives make investing more dynamic and transparent, as they link each company's unique circumstances with a tailored financial forecast and real-time valuation. This is all within Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share their perspectives.
With Narratives, you can see not just if Verisk’s stock is undervalued or overvalued, but why. You can also compare your own scenario to those of other investors by weighing charted fair values against current prices. These Narratives update automatically as new news or earnings reports come in, ensuring your view stays relevant.
For example, some investors currently believe Verisk could be worth as much as $340 per share if new platforms deliver rapid growth, while others see it closer to $258 amid ongoing industry headwinds. Narratives help you decide where your outlook fits along that spectrum.
Do you think there's more to the story for Verisk Analytics? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Verisk Analytics might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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