Shareholders Shouldn’t Be Too Comfortable With Upwork's (NASDAQ:UPWK) Strong Earnings

We didn't see Upwork Inc.'s (NASDAQ:UPWK) stock surge when it reported robust earnings recently. We decided to have a deeper look, and we believe that investors might be worried about several concerning factors that we found.

Check out our latest analysis for Upwork

Examining Cashflow Against Upwork's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to December 2023, Upwork recorded an accrual ratio of 0.23. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$11m, which is significantly less than its profit of US$46.9m. Given that Upwork had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of US$11m would seem to be a step in the right direction. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. The good news for shareholders is that Upwork's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Upwork's profit was boosted by unusual items worth US$39m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. Upwork had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to December 2023. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

Our Take On Upwork's Profit Performance

Summing up, Upwork received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Upwork's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. If you'd like to know more about Upwork as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Upwork (including 1 which is significant).

Our examination of Upwork has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.